Kainourgia xronia...

Eipame na ksekinisoume pali apo to 0 gia ti nea xronia kai giati allo kinitro exeis etsi alla kai giati afto einai to swsto, ti na to kanw px na eimai +70 units meta apo 2 xronia, pou den einai katholou asximo, alla ton prwto na eixa +82 units? Etsi ki alliws krineis kapoion apo to sinolo twn picks tou stin 'kariera' tou, alla einai skopimo gia na mporeis na aksiologiseis ton eafto sou prwta na to xwrizeis ana eti, i eksamina i kati tetoio. Dedomenou oti to site exei pio poli na kanei me podosfairiko kai mpasketiko stoixima pou kratan sxedon 9-10 mines, einai kalitero na ta kratame ana xrono. An eixes enan na paizei NFL kai allon NBA klp, isws voleve kati allo.

Tespa, i Skybet eixe kapoies paparitses pou me ekanan na ftiaksw logariasmo ekei.

To prwto stoixima afora tin Championship alla ME HANDICAP kai oxi poios tha kerdisei me to handicap alla poios tha vgei teleftaios!

Oi apodoseis gia tis 20 omades einai oi eksis:

Newcastle scr (suspended) Preston +12 18/1 Coventry +17 12/1
West Brom +2 18/1 Swansea +14 18/1 Peterborough +17 18/1
Middlesbrough +2 18/1 Leicester +14 18/1 Sheff. Wed. + 20 18/1
ipswich +4 20/1 Derby +14 20/1 Doncaster +26 18/1
Reading +6 18/1 Crystal Palace +14 18/1 Plymouth +26 18/1
Sheff. Utd +6 20/1 Nottm Forest +14 20/1 Barnsley +26 18/1
Q.P.R +8 18/1 Watford +17 15/1 Blackpool +26 18/1
Cardiff +12 18/1 Bristol City +17 18/1 Scunthorpe +30 18/1

Opws fainetai kai apo to (suspended) dipla sto onoma tis Newcastle, to maxara kai to kleidwsan. To pick loipon einai 1 unit each way 1/4 1-2-3-4 Newcastle to finish last in handicap betting for the championship se apodosi 10/1 (diladi 11.00 elliniko). Ti simainei omws to each way? 1 unit each way simainei 2 sinolika units risko: To 1 unit paei sto na vgei teleftaia i Newcastle sto handicap kai to deftero unit pigainei sto each way pou simainei oti plirwnesai 1/4 tis KATHARIS apodosis (diladi an einai 8/1, diladi 9.00 evrwpaiko, plirwnesai 8/4=2/1, ara 3.00 evrwpaiko afo pairneis pisw kai to stoixima sou) se periptwsi pou i Newcastle einai 1-2-3-4 sto handicap, diladi termatisei sto handicap se mia apo tis 4 teleftaies theseis.

Gia na to valei sto excelofillo o paparas arkei apla na kanei 2 eggrafes, ti mia na einai 1 unit sto 11.00 apodosi gia newcastle dead-last sto handicap kai to allo na einai 1 unit gia newcastle bottom-4 sto handicap se apodosi 3.5 (10/4=2.5/1, ara 3.50 eurwpaiko).

Na eksigisw ligo ti fasi tou handicap omws: I kaliteri sta xartia omada gia to book ksekinaei from scratch, apo to 0 diladi. Mazevei osous pontous mazepsei +0, diladi tous pontous tis. Oi ipoloipoi exoun kapoio avantzo, allos mikrotero kai allos megalitero. Sinithws to handicap betting einai psaksimo psillwn sta axira, kai tairiazei pio poli se datakides, sindikata pou paizoun aloga me computers klp. Tha to afina logika stin isixia tou, idiaitera ti stigmi pou einai profanestato oti i newcastle eixe idi paiktei (to 10/1 itan to xamilotero olwn). Apla i katastasi einai toso tragiki, ola deixnoun oti o Ashley telika de tha figei, paiktes gia pwlisi kalous meta to martins exoume mono to Bassong, alla ta 5-6 ante 9m pou tha ferei den klanoun mia ti stigmi pou to misthologio grafei 67M gia fetos, ti stigmi pou oi amesoi antagwnistes exoun 22m, 27m klp. Tha pesei kapws vevaia alla de vlepw na pigainei katw apo 45M kai an paei profanws afto tha simvei xanontas kalous paiktes. Iparxei mia fimi pou diepsefseo Ashey (kai afto einai to anisixitiko) oti mporei na mpoume se kathestws diaxeirisis, pragma pou apla tha ta gamouse ola kai se keini tin periptwsi paizei na palevoume gia swtiria. To kalo gia ton Ashley an ginei afto einai oti tha glitwsei polla apo forous, to kako vevaia einai oti i ependisi tou apo 100M pou aksizei afti ti stigmi stin agora, tha pesei para poli. Alla einai tosa ta xrei pou parola ta ekswfrenika esoda pou fernei aftos o iperoxos laos, de ginetai i omada na einai kerdofora oute fetos. Kai an men vgei, ok, toulaxiston tha piasei kali timi an tin poulisei. An de vgei, tou xronou exei akoma poli ligotera esoda kai ta xrei tha exoun megalwsei. Opote den apokleietai katholou o kargiolis na afisei tin prospatheia sti mesi an dei oti den exei xairi.

Gia na to pw me alla logia, i Newcastle dinei girw sto 10-11 XWRIS GKANIOTA (no-vig line) stin Betfair gia na pesei. An pesei, kata 99% an oxi 100% tha vgei dead last sto handicap. Iparxei omws para poli simantiki pithanotita na einai dead last sto handicap akoma kai an einai apla katw apo ti 10i thesi(kai an men vgei 11i i pithanotita mporei na einai mono 40-50%, an omws vgei 14i-15i, paei sto 80-85%% aneta), pragma pou de tha parakseneve kanenan.

Profanws to stoixima afto einai diskolo na vgei, opws otidipote dinei 11 apodosi. Akoma kai to wach way part (bottom 4 diladi) den einai logika favori na vgei. Ela omws pou pairneis 11 apodosi me kati pou exei aneta 15% na erthei (kai parapanw isws) kai 3.50 me kati pou exei aneta 40% na erthei...

Pame twra sto allo stoixima. Me kollise o Cotsos me ton Owen kai mpika na psaksw kapoia pragmata kai giafton stous prwtous skorers tis Premiership. Petixa mia para poli kali apodosi gia afton sto handicap, ela omws pou ipirxe mia akomi kaliteri kai kollisa me ekeini...Pali apo skybet, to stoixima einai 'first goalscorer using handicap' kai oi apodoseis oi eksis:

F Torres scr 15/1 R Van Persie +6 15/1 A Arshavin +9 12/1
S Gerrard +4 20/1 D Berbatov +6 15/1 R Keane +9 15/1
D Drogba +5 12/1 M Owen +6 11/1 D Kuyt +9 16/1
N Anelka +6 12/1 Robinho +7 18/1 J Beattie +9 15/1
W Rooney +6 15/1 F Lampard +7 15/1 G Agbonlahor +9 16/1
E Adebayor +6 15/1 Jo +7 16/1 S Ebanks-Blake +10 15/1
J Defoe +6 15/1 P Crouch +8 15/1

Iparxoun arketoi edw pou xtipan sto mati. O anelka px persi vgike prwtos scorer me 19 kai fetos exei 6 handicap apo Torres. Isws einai kalo bet. Episis o Rooney me +6 einai kalos opws kai o Owen me +6 de mporei na einai kakos. Otan dinei 15 sti BF gia prwtos, tote to +6 prepei na exei arketa kaliteres pithanotites kai as exei 10 atoma pio katw tou pou prepei na ta perasei apo 1-4 goals gia na parei to handicap.
Evala loipon 0.1 units each way sto Mixalaki ton Owen 1/4 odds, 1-2-3. Diladi 0.1 units na parei to handicap se apodosi 12.00 kai 0.1 unit na mpei stin triada tou handicap se apodosi 3.75. Alla ta polla ta epaiksa telika ston Arshavin, me 0.9 units sto 13.00 each way 1/4 odds, 1-2-3. Diladi 0.9 units na parei to handicap se apodosi 13.00 kai alla 0.9 units na mpei 3ada sto handicap se apodosi 4.00.

O Arshavin perisi evale 6 goal se 12 match prwtathlimatos me Arsenal. Kapou skeftika oti apo ton kseplimeno kai me 1000 travmatismous Owen, isws einai kaliteros o 28xronos Arshavin kai me 3 goal parapanw avantzo. An to palikari epideiksei tis igetikes tou ikanotites kai peistoun na paroun ta gamwpenalty apo ton Van Persie kai arxisei na ta xtipa aftos, to stoixima ginetai sketo xriafi. Alla kai xwris ta penalties perisi, mia xara ta pige.