Λίγες ώρες πριν ανοίξουν οι κάλπες...
Σίγουρα αυτές οι εκλογές δεν είναι τόσο εύκολες να τις εκτιμήσεις όσο του Ιουνίου. Άλλωστε, τότε είχαμε δημοσκοπήσεις έως την Παρασκευή πριν τις εκλογές, ενώ τώρα έχει 2 εβδομάδες που έχει απαγορευτεί η δημοσιοποίησή τους. Σε καμία περίπτωση λοιπόν, η εκτίμηση που κάνω δεν είναι αντιγραφή δημοσκόπησης που ξέρω το αποτέλεσμά της, αφού κι εγώ έχω μπερδευτεί με όσα ακούω ή μου μεταφέρουν.
Εκτίμηση αποτελέσματος Εθνικών εκλογών 4ης Οκτωβρίου 2009:
ΠΑΣΟΚ 41,28%
ΝΔ 37,12%
ΚΚΕ 8,21%
ΛΑΟΣ 4,66%
ΣΥΡΙΖΑ 3,78%
ΟΙΚΟΛΟΓΟΙ 1,96%
ΛΟΙΠΑ 1,09%
ΑΚΥΡΟ/ΛΕΥΚΟ 1.90%
Με αυτά τα αποτελέσματα η κατανομή εδρών είναι:
ΠΑΣΟΚ 153 έδρες
ΝΔ 102 έδρες
ΚΚΕ 22 έδρες
ΛΑΟΣ 13 έδρες
ΣΥΡΙΖΑ 10 έδρες
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6 σχόλια:
Loipon meta tin Pae Puma Nea Poutsa, pigame YTD: 66-53 +16.57 units. Tha kanw twra ti soume sta politika. Par'olo pou to apotelesma itan tsita akraio, vgika poli panw, pragma pou apodeiniei oti de ginetai na xasei kaneis se ekloges oso ta grafeia kanoun magkies kai dnoun 100 diaforetika stoiximata, einai apla i fisi etsi twn eklogwn. Pame, arxizontas apo ta xamena:
Akrivis Diafora PASOK 5%-6.5% -3 units. Efige teleiws off alla kai pali me swstes kalipseis paizontas allou stoiximata iper pasok, sxedon den paizei rolo.
ND +7.5% sto 5plo handicap, -3 units apala, me arrwsto value iper. Toso oti na'nai apotelesma, alla opws tha fanei, kai pali ligo rolo paizei sti souma.
ND +6.75% sto 5plo NEO handicap -3 units, ALLA kai Pasok +.5% +11.25 units. Afto epeidi einai idia agora, to metraw 1-0 +8.25 units.
Siriza akrivws 8 edres, -.5 units, ALLA kai Siriza over 8 edres +2.70 units. Ara pali 1-0, +2.20 edres.
Siriza +2.5% apo LAOS paroli me Highest Scoring Quarter (HSQ apo dw kai pera) sto Cowboys-Panthers to 2o quarter, -2 units, giati HSQ vgike to 4o, ALLA kai Siriza +2.5% apo LAOS paroli me HSQ to 4o (5.43 apodosi) +6.65 units. Ara pali 1-0 +4.65 units.
KKE -1.75% apo LAOS paroli me HSQ sto idio match to 2o, -2 units, ALLA omoiws sto paroli me to 4o quarter vgazei apodosi 5.27 kai me 1.5 unit pontarisia, vgazei +6.41 units. Ara pali 1-0 +4.41 units kai se afti tin agora.
Kai kata ta alla tsou(tsou)nami tous pigame: ND ov 31.5% +2.55 units akomi kai me tetoia apistefti pswli tis ND.
LAOS un 7% +2.55 units kai pali, apala.
Pasok -2.5 edres sti Makedonia 1.80, kerdise 32-20 nomizw. +2.40 units.
Thraki -2.5 edres to Pasok 3.00 apodosi, +4.00 monades (2 units sto 3.00). Edw einai i klassiki periptwsi emmesis kalipsis. Afto xreiazotan na figei poli i diafora gia na vgei, efige i diafora, vgike, kai exase to 5-6.5%. I istoria itan na paei 3-1 kai oxi 2-2 o Evros, pros to telos afto egine kai ola kala.
ND un 97 edres (ousiastika un 96.5, afou ipirxe epilogi akrivws 97): +1.50 units, pire 92 or so, alla ok, to value proerxotan apo ta noumera an to pragma pigaine sto arnitiko gia pasok senario, oxi etsi pou itan tsonta outws i allws.
B' Athinwn, pasok -4.5 edres, pige 21-11, alla oriaka me 20-11, asteia apodosi, +1.50 units.
KKE un 8.5% +2.40 units, episis aneta. Poios o logos na paikseis to 8%? Afti einai oli i fasi omws, 8 (pou pali evgaine) apo 8.5, exei terastia diafora. Opws akrivws egine kai me to -1.75% apo Laok, pou an epaiza to -2 imoun kouva 3.5 units, diladi kamia 8 units diafora apo oti telika egine.
Telos LAOS un 17 edres, +1.50 units.
Souma:12-2 +31.91 units.
YTD: 78-55 +48.48 units.
Mon.
3 units Pae Puma Nea Kavala - Gay diplo sto 1.65.
De varaw trimpala sti mpala, alla adinatw na pistepsw oti de tha vrw xamilotera sti BF otan erthei to match. Mporei na einai to lay kai sto 1.50, sovara twra. 1.57 edine ston teli mwre. Twra pou exei deiksei tosi dinami i Zela, ti 1.65? Tha kalpsw kana unit later sti BF, alla twra trimpalo. Allwste afinoun na paikseis kai polla.
Mon.
Sti Bwin fisika to parapanw. Mono aftoi mporoun na kanoun 10% lathos sti mpala...
Mon.
Latvia +1.25 goals 2.00 apodosi, 2 units.
Diladi paei ena unit Latvia +1 2.00 apodosi kai 1 unit Latvia +1.5 2.00 apodosi.
De vlepw ti logiki, teams are going to different directions. I Ellada einai pia konta sto na kanei to oneiro (twn dimosiografwn kai twn mirlidwn) pragmatikotita. To 75% tis xwras apala tha ithele na min kerdisoume. Parapanw isws. Kai sigoura parapanw sto Lekanopedio opou tha ginei to match. Metria omada, miden edra sto OAKA kai mirla, gamatos sindiasmos gia na kerdiseis me 2 goal mia omada pou pige kai kerdise mesa sto Israel kai efere x meta me tin omada tou Mplater. Ti stigmi pou emeis kaname x sti Moldavia. I apodosi eprepe na einai +1 1.90 (no vig) kai an. O Karagkounis den einai se kali katastasi, o Seitaridis einai diskolo na paiksei, kai oi allages tou einai o ilithios kai o panilithios. O Moras kai o Papastathopoulos den kserw an paizoun (mallon nai) alla tin teleftaia vdomada kai oi 2 den epaiksan logw travmatismwn. O Xaristeas den paizei, alla tha ton vrizoun oi apeksw akoma kai xwris na paizei, asxeta pou i allagi tou kata kanona paizei akoma xeirotera (stin ethniki). O monos pou einai se megali anodo einai o Katsouranis, alla ftanei? De nomizw. Vasika, an i Ellada edine 2.00, pithanotata de tha tin epaiza kai pali. Twra dinei katw apo 1.40. An de mathw oti erxetai diaititis ninja, pou de nomizw na erthei, de vlepw to logo giati den einai estw 1.70 o asos. Den paizoume me kapoion pou den exei kinitro. Me x pernaei i Letonia. Mporei kai to Israel, alla tha prepei na stithei i Switzerland sto teleftaio kai na min kerdisoun mono 1-2 goal twra ti Moldavia, alla parapanw. Enw Letonia tha exei ena ligotero goal sto goal difference apo Ellada kai tha filoksenei Moldova. I Ellada tha filoksenei Luxembourgo. Poios lete na valei ekei parapanw goal? Emeis pou tha paizoume me tin plousioteri xwra tou kosmou i oi Letonoi pou tha paizoun me xwra pou i vizita kanei 7 euro?
Mon.
Pinbet to parapanw.
Mon.
Tha valw kai 1 unit lay to 1.39 sti BF gia ton asso tis Elladas. Diladi san na paizei X2 sto 3.56.
Makari na kerdisoume, alla se afti tin apodosi den paw paso, apla. Exei afthono akoma gia opoios thelei..
Mon.
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