Σήμερα:
Αστον Βίλα-Μπολτον 1 2.5 units στο 1.65
Αοκ-παο 2 2 units στο 1.53
Αρλ-Μαρσεϊγ 2 2 untis στο 1.55
Ηρακλής-Αελ Χ 1 unit στο 3.00
Μονακό-Τουλούζ over 1 unit στο 2.45
Οξφορντ-Στοκπορτ 1 2 units στο 1.53 για 2η αγγλίας
Ιστμπορν-Ολτρινχαμ 1 2 units στο 1.60 για κονφερενς αγγλίας
Σουόνσι-Σκανθορπ Χ2 διπλή ευκαρία με 1.5 unit στο 2.30 για τσαμπιονσιπ
Βέρντερ-Μάιντζ X2 διπλή ευκαρία με 1 unit στο 2.45 (για την απόδοση με την αήττητη μάιντζ)
Αύριο:
Σάλκε-Ντόρτμουντ 1 στο 2.20 με 1.5 unit
Αγροτικός-Παναιτωλικός 2 στο 3.30 1 unit
Κέρκυρα-Ατρόμητος 2 στο 2.70 me 1 unit
Καλλιθέα-Εθν. Αστέρας 1 στο 1.95 με 1.5 unit
Ανοιχτήκαμε αυτό το ΣΚ...
Εγγραφή σε:
Σχόλια ανάρτησης (Atom)
12 σχόλια:
1 unit sto diplo tou Atromitou stin Tripoli, 3.50, Bwin.
Mon.
1 unit kai ston aso tis Kerkiras me ti gria,2.50 bwin.
Mon.
kala eidika ti gria, pane na ti fane laxano nomizw...mantalos prwtos, kalogeropoulos tetartos...
Ase pou de thelei kai poli.
Oso gia ton Atromito, kali fainetai i diaititik sinthesi, pragma pou evnoei to filoksenoumeno. Oso xavales kai an einai o Dwnis, nomizw o Vlaxos einai akoma xeiroteros kai me xeirotero iliko. Tha deiksei.
Kai stin Toumba pantws perimenw ekpliksi. Oxi anagkastika diplo, pio pithano einai to x, alla sto 4.60 tis bwin isws na einai kai ligo value to diplo. Ta simeia fisika einai swsta, asos to favori (oi kiries tou ari diskola na mi xestoun stin Toumba), meta to x, meta to diplo. Wstoso nomizw oti einai ligo pio kontina ta pososta apo oti sinithws. An eixe ligo megaliteri diafora apo tin korifi o Paok i an eixe ftasei se fasi ekriksis to kazani, de tha akoumpousa tipote pera apo ton aso. An omws kerdisei simera kai eidika an den kerdisei kai o Aris, tote skeftomai kai mia psili diplo. Paradosiaka se afta ta match oi dio omades pan na swsoun ti xronia tous. An o Paok den kerdisei ti Dinamo, diskola to kiriakatiko na figei apo ton aso, an xasei stin evrwpi o asos ginetai sxedon sigouros. An ferei x, paizei kai to x sto derby, alla mallon asos. An kerdisei, apokta tixi kai to diplo pantws.
Afto kath'afto to match, o paok poli kalitero iliko, flegomeni toumba klp, alla 2 atou gia ari. Prwton proponitis apo teleiws allo epipedo se sxesi me dermitzaki. Defteron exw mia ipopsia oti de tha ginoun ta persina opou oi 2 omades piran tous 2 asous me nomothetika diatagmata. Itan poli emfanes kai xtipise asxima. Ton vlepw gia ok ton Tsiniari. Meta paizei kai paratiritis o Mintiouris, arma vazelou, ara de tha ton parapetaksei ton Ari. An kai o Mintiouris ipallilos tou vardin itan, enw o Kontis me patera exei sxeseis...
Mon.
I pinnacle evgale apodoseis kai exei tin kerkira 2.65, opote ekana malakia. Apo tin alli ekana kala kai den epaiksa ari 4.60, afou vgike twra apo pinnacle sto 4.89. Wstoso eida to x sto 3.48 kai kati epatha. De mporei na min einai kalitero apo to diplo tou 4.89 to x tou 3.48 re pousti mou, fainetai afisika psilo. Telika koitaksa mpas kai paizei kamia asinexeia metaksi tou x2 paizontas afta ta 2 analogika i paizontas to handicap. Den iparxei (fisiologiko afto, pou epsaxna mipws? stin ksistarxidia soubet.com? Stin pinny epsaxna...) kai an to deis analogika afta ta 2 vgazoun kati san 2.03.
Opote epaiksa telika to handicap, kai afto kanw pick 1.5 units to +.5 goal tou Ari sto 2.06. Iparxei vevaia periptwsi na anevei ki allo, afou o Aris exase kai o Paok kerdise, alla de tha perimenw. O logos einai oti o Paok meta to 1-0 pou eida egw edeikse poli kaki omada. Vevaia kai o Aris den einai Dinamo, sigoura. Einai xeiroteros. Wstoso, poli sixna se afta ta derbie tis salonikis to pairnei aftos pou to exei pio poli anagki. Edw i anagki tou paok gia to apotelesma maskarevetai kapws apo to gegonos oti petaei stin Evrwpi (san apotelesmata) kai apo to oti o Aris ep'oudeni den paei kalitera, oute fovizei oti tha ton perasei gia fetos (asxeta pou mporei na simvei telika afto), opws episis apo to gegonos oti kai oi alloi diekdikites tou titlou exoun xasei mpolikous vathmous. An dwsei na ginei kai kanena trello na gkelarei o gavros me volo (san omades oxi entelws apithano, alla pantws arketoutsika apithano isws, giati sto teleftaio pou eipan oti epaiksa kala o gavros, den to eida. Me vasi tin palia eikona, aneta gkelare. Alla einai kai o ref ligo periergos. Me alli omada o mpeos eixe tixi me to ref, alla me gavro den kserw. Na einai toso magkas o mpeos pou na parei sfirigmata ekei mesa me lamogiako ref?), tote akoma pio efkola ginetai to x2 stin toumba.
Me vasi ti logiki, diskola na min einai to x to kalitero simeio apo apopsi value, alla epeidi ksekinisa gia diplo (an erxontan opws irthan ta evrpaika) kai epeidi einai arketa close wste na min antexw na xtipaw to kefali ston toixo etsi kai erthei diplo, tha to paiksw sto handicap.
Mon.
Loipon, imoun YTD:14-16 +13.05.
-1 unit apo tin kerkira
-1 unit apo atromito
+1.59 units apo Ari x2.
Ena match den epaiksa ksero diplo, pige kai vgike. Stin Kerkira amfitalanteftika para poli metaksi tou asou kai enos handicap (opou sto x epairnes ta lefta sou pisw), alla na mi dw poutsa, na paw na karfwthw...
Tespa 1-2 -0.41 units.
YTD:15-18 +12.64 units.
Mon.
1 unit na mi skorarei o Ofi sto 9.00, expekt.
0.6 units na mi skorarei o Pas, 11.50, expekt.
Pistevw oti kai ta dio match tha einai asoi, de vlepw tin ekpliksi se kanena apo ta dio idiaitera. Eidika de gia to defteriatiko, akoma kai na ginei i ekpliksi de tha mou fanei periergo na ginei se styl 1-1 opote pali na xanw.
Wstoso de mou afinoun epilogi oi apodoseis. To x2 sto prwto match dinei 4 kai sto deftero 4.33. Oi apodoseis gia na mi skoraroun oi gipedouxoi (ara x2 eks'orismou) einai iperdiplasies kai sta 2. Iparxei kaneis pou na pistevei oti apo tis fores pou tha gkelarei o gipedouxos, panw apo tis mises tha ginoun enw exei skorarei???Egw de nomizw...
Diladi as poume oti o Ofi gkelarei akrivws 25%. Ara to x2 einai oudetero stoixima (4x0.25=1.00). An tis mises fores i gkela ginei epeidi de skorarei, tote to na mi skorarei exei value (9x0.125=1.125) kai malista 12.5%. Pistevw oti panw apo tis mises pou tha gkelarei einai epeidi de skorare.
Katarxas ta over dinontai kapws xamila, apo ekei isws ksekina to provlima. Alla akomi kai me afta ta over, i analisi poisson deixnei oti akomi kai me kapws ipervolika noumera gia tous gipedouxous na skoraroun exoume value sto na mi skoraroun. Diladi akomi kai an o pas vazei meso oro 2.35 goal se afto to match, pali eprepe na dinei 10.49 na mi skorarei, to 11.50 einai loipon value. Akomi kai me 2.15 goal meso oro o Ofi se afto to match, pali to 9 na mi skorarei einai value.
Mporeis omws na to deis kai alliws...
Oi 2 omades den anevikan akomi. Akomi kai an apodeixtoun ta trena tis katigorias, o persinos volos pou skorpize kosmo, emeine 2 fores sto miden stin edra tou. 2/17 (asa, ethniko astera). Ara akomi kai ekeini i omada sto 9 na mi skorarei tha itan value. I kerkira, to allo treno, emeine 4/17 sto miden entos. Ara tha itan trello value. O Pas kai o Ofi den pistevw kan oti tha ginoun fetinoi Voloi, eidika o Ofi me tin kamia. O Pas isws. An oi omades pou kseroume oti vgikan aera perisi den apetrepan to value se tetoies periptwseis, tote sigoura oi omades pou mallon tha vgoun fetos alla de mporoume na eimaste akoma sigouroi, tha afinoun value.
De vlepw na erxetai kanena apo ta 2, alla nomizw oti to value einai poli megalo gia na mint o paiksw...
Mon.
Exasan aneta kai ta 2, opote pame 0-2 -1.6 units.
Ara, YTD:15-20 +11.04 units.
Tha valw 2 units stin AEL me ton Astera Tripolis, giati apla to 1.93 tin Pinnacle einai ipervoliko nomizw.
To iliko twn 2 de sigkrinetai apla. O Papakwstas einai vevaiws xavales, alla o Piladakis, ektos apo asxetos einai kai atixos o foukaras. Den exei tin tixi na tou katsoun mazemenes oi sfaliares mpas ka ksefortwthei kati palta san afton to vapsomallia, i to doni pio palia.
Apla de me peithei oti to match afto einai gia toso psila. Kapoion prepei na kerdizei kai i Ael stin edra tis, an oxi to vlaxo, tote poion?
Mon.
Tha valw kai 1.5 unit sto x2 tou Israel me tin Ellada sto 2.05 tis Pinnacle.
Paradoksws, den einai bet kata tis Elladas toso afti ti fora, oso iper tou Israel. Den itan toso kakoi me Croatia. Kai o Torosidis einai simantiki apwleia gia mas. De tha me ekpliksei to diplo, vasika to exw paiksei ki olas.
Oxi oti einai kai aman to stoixima. Apla den eimai sigouros oti eimaste toso kaloi osoi fainomaste sta 2 teleftaia, enw to Israel sigoura den einai oso kako edeikse i itta tou apo croatia entos oti einai. Epipleon den eixan mundial aftoi (kala kai polloi apo tous dikous mas den eixan vevaia).
Telos, de mporw na pw oti me psinei kai toso poli to dithen poli kalo mas klima. Ta akouw ligo verese afta...
Mon.
Meta ti sfagi twn amnwn apo ton Hanson, exoume YTD:15-21 +9.54 units. Ti na leme twra gia ton alitara...
Telos pantwn...
2 units ston Panserraiko +0 goals (level handicap) sto 3.55 tis Expekt.
Meta apo toses poutses me ti gria den ithela na asxolithw peraiterw na tin paiksw kontra, alla opoios evgale aftin tin apodosi prepei na noiwsei ligo giati einai entelws anw potamwn.
Stin betbrain dinei ws pososta to 48% gia aso, 29% gia x kai 23% gia diplo. Me vasi to 23%, to megisto diplo pou einai 4.41 apo katw poutsoetairies dinei 1.5% value. Sto 4.25 tis Bwin pou akolouthei xaneis kai 2% meso oro...Anti aftou, an paikseis to level handicap tis Expekt exeis 10.65% value. Kai pairneis kai ta lefta sou pisw sto x, ara exeis poli mikrotero variance.
Gia na parete mia gefsi, an to diplo eixe 31%(!!!) na erthei, pou profanws tote kai ta dio stoiximata tha eixan astronomiko value(konta 37%), akoma kai tote itan ligo kalitero to level handicap KAI se value. Peritto na pw oti an exeis toso terastio value, etsi ki alliws psaxneis na meiwseis variance...
Alla as to paroume kai alliws. As poume oti o asos exei 51% na erthei, to x stathero 29% kai to diplo molis 20%. Tote to 4.41 exei -12% value, poli xasoura, enw to stoixima tis expekt exei akrivws 0% (breakeven). Profanws koimontousan otan to evgalan. Otan kati einai toso arrwsto, anagkastika prepei na to valw 2 units...
Mon.
Meta tin tsapou tis Ael pame sto YTD:15-22-1 +7.54 units.
To 1 einai i isopalia pou kaname me to level handicap tou Panserraikou. Tixeros pou den exasa kai afto eimai, alla ekei toulaxiston plirwthika to oti tin epsaksa kai epaiksa mia poli kali apodosi, kati einai ki afto.
Mon.
1.5 units (giati den pairnoun parapanw) sto 1/1 tou panaitwlikou. Aso apo imixrono. To 1.48 tis bwin paizetai kai apo mono tou pistevw.
Apla to 1/1 tha to epaiza kai sto 2.00, i alitheia einai kai pio katw. To prwi, pou den eixan vgei akomi apodoseis, eipa se ena filo oti an to dei panw apo 1.90 na to paiksei.
I fasi einai oti tosa xronia pou prakolouthw apotelesmata panitwlikou, eidika sta entos, proigeitai panta apo to imixrono. Apo tin alli i Doxa, to eixame pei kai sta 3 prwta match pou den efage goal, oti exei provlima sto prwto imixrono. San na mi ftanoun ola afta, i apodosi gia aso (1.48) einai apo moni tis psili. Kai afto kanei akoma psiloteri tin apodosi tou 1/1. To mono arnitiko einai oti i Doxa isws noiwsei ligo meta tin tsapou sto vouli, opws kai o Panai isws exei ligo kapws psixologia apo to match me Pas. Alla i apodosi einai toso psili eidika gia to 1/1 pou den afinei perithwria...
Vasika kai ton ethniko apo to imixrono ton paizw, gia allous logous. As to dwsw kai afto. 1/1 o ethnikos me diagora 2.75 gia 0.8 units.
episis 0.3 units sto paroli twn 2 sto 6.74. Ola bwin fisika.
Mon.
Ap'to kako sto xeirotero...
Tespa, 1.2 units sto 3.00 tou thrasou me ofi. 0.8 units sto 8.00 tis bwin gia thrasos -1.5 goals me ofi.
Paizw kai ligo doxa sto 1.75 kai ligo paok genika, alla tis doxas exei pesei sti bwin toulaxiston kai tou paok de variesai twra pou na kanw pick?
Pantws apo apopsi plirous paketou, asxeta an de vgei, o voulis einai to kalitero. Katholou sevasmos sta poli kala tou apotelesmata kai ton poli kalo proponiti tou. An i omada legotan estw veroia, estw trikala (omades toy kwlou ligo poli), estw akoma kai pierikos (!!!) tha edine xamilotera ton aso. Parolo pou se apotelesmata o thrasos me aftous einai mera me ti nixta kai pou exei ligo ligotero kosmo -sto gipedo- apo ti veroia kai ligo perissotero apo ton pieriko.
Einai omws kai thema toy styl twn omadwn. Den paei na klepsei o thrasos, piezei psila. Sto skaki einai kaliteros o moustakias (me poli kalitero iliko), edw iparxei pithanotita na ittithei kai kata kratos. Oxi toso megali, alla ikani gia na kanei value tin apodosi. Eidika tou -1.5...
Mon.
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