Twra thelei ligo volley!

1.5 units sto Vazelo (vs gavros) +1.5 sets 1.85 stin Expekt.
1.5 units sto under 186.5 points stin Expekt.

Genika klinw pros vazelo ligo se afto to match. Pes omws pws theleis na tous paikseis sto 2.40 na kerdisoun. As poume oti to 2.40 einai even bet, exei diladi 1/2.4 na erthei diladi 41.66%. An vgaleis ti gkaniota gia ta 6 akrivi scores twn sets vgainei peripou 20%. I diafora metaksi vazelou sto moneyline kai vazelou +1.5 sets einai profanws to 3-2 tou gavrou. Afto exei 5.25 apodosi, ara 6.30 an pollaplasiaseis epi to 'overround' tou 1.20 (diladi ti sinoliki gkaniota). Ara to 6.3 einai i 'true' apodosi. Kai exei 1/6.3=15.87% na erthei. Ara an to 2.40 einai even bet, tote to +1.5 sets exei 41.66+15.87=57.53% na erthei. An pollaplasiaseis afti tin pithanotita me to 1.85 vgazei 6.4% value pou einai masive (gia tetoio bet). Stin praksi katalavainei kaneis kai apo apli diaisthisi oti to kalitero apo ta 2 bets einai to +1.5, apla kalo einai na mathete na zalizete ligo ta paparia sas kai me kati tetoies prakseis, mpas kai xreiastoun pote (se pio close katastaseis xreiazontai).

Genika xreiazetai na kserei kaneis na kanei kai tis prakseis an xreiastei an kai edw einai teleiws ksekatharo. Giati einai toso ksekatharo? As poume oti kapoios eksipnitzis pou exei diavasei kai 5 pragmata, sou leei: 'Nai alla o Buchadahl, sto vivlio tou peri favourite-longshot bias apodeikniei oti i gkaniota twn books den isokatanemetai se ola ta stoiximata. Oi pio mikres apodoseis kouvaloun kai pio mikri gkaniota (giati tha paiztoun parapanw kai o mpouk apodexetai ena mikrotero kommati apo mia megaliteri pita), enw oi pio psiles exoun pio poli gkaniota kai giati tha paixtoun ligotero kai gia thema riskou (an etixe na kanei kapoio lathos, na exei megalitero dixty asfaleias stis psiles apodoseis)'. Pairneis loipon afti ti thewria kai testareis ti ginetai se mia akraia kaki periptwsi. Les px oti to 5.25 as poume oti anti gia to meso 20% gkaniota, exei gkaniota 40% (ara kapoia apo ta alla scores exoun mikroteri). Vevaia to 40% einai akraio. Stin teliki analisi to 3-2 gavrou einai i triti xamiloteri apo tis 6 apodoseis ara den iparxei logos na exei toso arrwsti gkaniota. Alla pes oti exei, etsi xavales na ginetai. Ara true odds 5.25x1.40=7.35 Ara pithanotita na vgei 3-2 o gavros 1/7.35=13.6%. Ara pithanotita gia to +1.5 41.66+13.6=55.26%, ara akoma kai etsi vgainei (pollaplasiazontas me to 1.85) ligo panw apo 2% value.

To deftero bet einai partial hedge tou prwtou. Kata vasi, an den itan se simantiko vathmo alliloapokleiomena, tha epaiza apo 1 unit. Einai omws se megalo vathmo alliloapokleiomena, giafto vazw 1.5. Giati mou aresei to deftero? Pali apo diaisthsisi kai mono to 186.5 mou fanike psilo. Opote to epsaksa. Me vasi tis apodoseis gia set-betting to 3-0 (either team) exei peripou 35% na erthei. To 3-2 (eiher team) exei 31% na erthei. Einai profanes oti me 5 sets to match paei sigoura over (apeiroelaxisti pithanotita na min paei, den kserw an estw kai ena den pige) kai me 3-0 to match paei under(mideniki praktika na paei under). Tha xreiazotan kati se stil 30-28, 32-30, 35-33 gia na paei over. Afta de ginontai. Ara olo to mouxampeti einai ti ginetai sto 34% pithanotita na erthei 3-1 to match. An erthei 3-0 pianoume sigoura to under (kai isws vazelo), an erthei 3-2 xanoume sigoura to under alla kerdizoume sigoura to vazelo. An erthei 3-1 paizei na ta xasoume kai ta 2, i na splittaroun i na ta kerdisoume kai ta 2. Poso sixna loipon paei stin ellada under 186.5 pontoys ena match me 4 sets? Se 56 match pou pigan sta 4 sets, ta 35 itan under, diladi 62.5%, kathisa kai to epsaksa. Sta playoffs ta 9/10. Genika ta over se 4 set eginan kiriws se match omadwn me pio metriwn, antitheta apo to ti tha pisteve kaneis. Afto eksigeitai giati sta pio sovara match stin ellada, mia omada parataei ena set pio efkola apo oti dio omades tis poutsas stin arxi tis season. Genika ta over 4rwn srts eginan tis prwtes agwnistikes (px 3/3 tin prwti). Tespa, 0.625x0.34= 0.2125. Ara to chance gia to over vgainei 35+21.25=56.25%. 56.25%x1.85= 1.040625, diladi 4.0625% value. Oi ipologismoi omws einai kapws metriopatheis. Giati to under me 4 sets exei mallon pio konta se 65-66% na erthei. Kai giati an i gkaniota einai pio mikri stis mikres apodoseis, tote exei pio psili pithanotita na ginoun mono 3 sets (logw tou 3-0 gavros) kai peftei kapws i pithanotita twn 5-setters.

Afti einai kai oli i omorfia me ta bets pou einai allilokalipseis xwris na einai akrivws kalipseis. Stin praksi sinithws vgainei to 1 apo ta 2 kai fainetai oti xaneis ti gkaniota. Merikes fores omws tha kerdiseis kai ta dio kai poli ligoteres tha xaseis kai ta 2. Se vathos xronou tha vgeis panw. Kai paizeis poli parapanw apo oti tha epaizes kanonika giati logika de tha xasoun kai ta dio mazi. Kai an xasoun kai ta dio mazi, exeis kai na les poso tragika gkantemis eisai:)