Ante gamitheite re stisakides!!!

Tin wra pou milaw, to 6o paixnidi Bulls-Celtics pigainei sti defteri paratasi.

Alla an afta pou ginontai edw, ginontan se podosfairo, o mikros ale, de tha mazevotan me kamia dinami. Apo ta 6 paixnidia pou exoun paixtei ta 4 exoun paei stin paratasi (afto sti defteri) kai ena kontepse na paei. I pithanotita na paei paixnidi stin paratasi sto NBA einai 5%. As poume (den exw numbers gia afto to deftero) oti an einai mikro to spread oti exei 7% (diskola na exei toso psilo, alla as poume).

Akou twra ale mou senario: Vgazei ena tsakalaki na poume, kai kala marketmaker, stin Matchbook (pou einai i amerikaniki ekdosi tis Betfair, to kalo tous antallaktirio), to prwto match na min paei paratasi 1.07. An exei 7% i paratasi, afto einai -ev. As poume to vazei 1.08. Sto 1.08, einai mikro value. Pes oti merikoi pros pou ta noumera tous lene oti einai ligo katw apo 7% to paizoun kati psila, 5-10 xiliarika. Ante na paiztoun sinolika 50k. Ti xanei o marketmaker? 4k. To paixnidi paei ston ponto alla den paei paratasi. En tw metaksi exei dwsei kai kanena 8-9 NA PAEI paratasi, mpas kai tsimpisei kanenas asxetos. Kai oti kerdisei apo kei apo atoma pou 'to vlepw poli close'. Ti defteri mera, epeidi itan poli close to prwto, paei kai to dinei 1.10 na paei paratasi. Ekei oi pro, kanonika lerwnoun to swvrakaki tous, easy money! Exoun na poume ti vasi dedomenwn pou tous leei oti afto tomatch me tetoio total psilo klp klp klp vgainei 6.7% paratasi kai sou len 93.3% na kerdisw. 0.933x1.10=1.0263 Milame gia 2.63% value, alla me terastia pithanotita na katsei to stoixima, opote to Kritirio Kelly leei stous pros 'paikse 20% tis bankas'. O pro de tha paiksei vevaia 20% tis bankas tou, alla 50k to kefali tha paiksei AAAAAAAAAAAANETAAAAAAAAAA. Mazevei stoixima 500k o allos (riskarontas 50k), to stinei kai paei paratasi! As poume oti dinei taftoxrona kai ligo 'na paei paratasi' sto 6-7 apodosi, alla ta donks ti na tou paiksoun? Fragkodifragka!Ante na tou paiksoun sinolo 10k (polla lew, den iparxoun toso polla trella donks me toso polla lefta).

Pernaei ena matsaki sto ntoukou, pes oti dinei pali 1.08, i 1.10, gia ksekarfwma, alla gia mikra posa. Xanei pali 4-5k. Giati exei kanei lay mikrotera posa.

Anatharroun kai oi pros ligo. Sto tetarto paixnidi, paei kai dinei 1.13. Oi pros den kratiountai pleon. Ksanakoitoun ti vasi dedomenwn tous kai len 'ante na ekana lathos re, ante aftot o matchup na exei 7% na paei paratasi, etsi gia na exoume kai ligo aera. 0.93x1.13=1.0509. WOW! 5.1% value se kati pou den paizei na exei katw apo 93% na erthei! All-IN!' kai paizoun 100rika (xilaides). De mazevei stin kseftila tou 1 mirio? Ipervolika efkola sou lew egw. Emena an mou edines 1.13 na min paei paratasi, 1k tha to epaiza. Kai den exw 2-3miria banka opws aftoi. Trwne tin pswlia afou to match paei paratasi.

Sto 5o match, pleon sou leei 'ola ta donks pou paizoun asteies apodoseis opws 6-7-8 na paei paratasi (pou einai gia gelia bet) exoun ena karo lefta gia petama pleon. Opote dikaiologoumai na to valw 5-6 na paei paratasi, giati kapoioi tha tsimpisoun kai tha poun 'e oxi kai 6! The 2 teams like to play close games'. Opote to na min paei paratasi tha to valw 1.15. Poios malakas tha to paiksei(kai kala)? Milame pleon oti oi paiktes exoun salepsei, oi sovaroi. Sou leei o allos, 'na paei na gamithei re den to paizw...Alla re pousti gamw to theo mou mesa, poso ston poutso re na exei na paei paratasi? Ante na tis valw sto mouni tis manas mou tis databases, ante afto to matchup na einai poli pio pithano na paei paratasi. Alla poso gamw tin panagia mou? 10%(pou den paizei)???? Entaksei 10%. Kai pali 3.5% value vgainei re pousti. Alla oxi asto, na paei na gamithei. Koita to to gamimeno, anevainei. 1.16. Koita, koita, gamw tin panagia mou. Tiiiiiiii????? 1.17???????? Kala noiwthoun kastano???? Na paei na gamithei, egw den ekana ti banka mou afinontas 8.81% value se 93% chances (Simeiwsi Stilis: prosekste edw oti ekei pou o pro dithen elege 'ok 10%', edw to ipologizei pali me vasi to 7% na erthei, en merei giati afto einai to swsto, en merei gia na dwsei ligo tharros ston eafto tou oti de tha ksanagamithei o Dias. Kai oi pros me 3miria banka, einai anthrwpoi!).' Kai kapou ekei, kapoio paizoun apla 50 kai 100k. Kapoioi alloi pou exoun kanei ti banka tous me pio aggressive tropo, kai exoun ftasei 2-3 fores pisw sto miden, apla varane allin 500k i kapws etsi.
A, edw na pw oti epithetikoi bookmakers, arxizoun kai to paizoun pleon kai aftoi gia 1-2 miria o kathenas. Polloi mpouk paizoun stoixima otan thewroun oti einai poli kalo. Profanws oi bankes tous einai gigantiaies. Einai to antistoixo me to na dwsoun aftoi stin pelateia tous apodosi 7 na paei paratasi kai na vrethoun malakes na tous paiksoun 250k-500k. Afto gia ena book einai to pio agrio oneiro tou! Opote kanei o allos stin kseftila alla 10 miria kerdi me to na paei paratasi.

E sto 6o match pleon, oi paiktes, mpouk klp viwnoun tin NFL season tou 2005 (tote pou kanena outsider apla pote den kerdize to spread kai oloi oi pros gamithikame kai an den eixa xalarwsei ligo kai den eixa piasei 15k se mia mera pou i bwin ekane tin patata tis dekaetias kai epiasa 11/11 props, twra isws eixa allaksei epaggelma). Lene apla 'kapote tha teleiwsei i tixi twn asxetwn'. Episis exoun prosthesei akoma kai amerikanoi kai aggloi sto fraseologio tous fraseis tou styl 'akoma kai stimeno na einai (pou einai adianoito na milisei gia stimena amerikanos pro bettor, eidika se major sport), de mporei na einai sigouroi oti tha to valei re pousti mou!'. Pali gia na dwsoun tharros ston eafto tous. Oi apodoseis pleon thimizoun B' ethniki ellados. To tsakalaki pou stinei ta match, vgazei prwti entoli sto 1.20, 60-70k. Tou to paizoun se defterolepta kapoio kwlofardoi pros, san emena px, pou eixan tin tixi na mi mplakoun apo nwris se afta ta stoiximata giati oute kan gnwrizan oti kapoios palavos prosferei 1.13 klp sto na min paei match stin paratasi, alla to diavasan argotera se threads pou eklaigan oi pros pou to prolavan. Kai legan 'kali kwlofardia pou to glitwsa, twra pou oi alloi de tha exoun kai poli xrima kai tharros na ta akoumpisoun kai pou oi asxetoi, plirwnontai 30res xiliarika me tis parataseis kai exoun malli na tis ksanapontaroun, twra tha tous prolavw egw'. Kathetai loipon o malakas o Ilias kai perimenei pote tha anoiksoun tpt kalo. Skaei to 1.20 ka adeiazei to account tou, 4k. San emena alloi posoi. To tsakalaki pou stinei to match omws, kanei pws eklase twra ligo, vgazei epomeni entoli mono sto 1.17. Oi pros skeftontai 'xa, eklases twra mounaki, vale re mouni, oxi vale twra, 3 euro gia kaltses tha kratisw kai tha sou paiksw kai tis mpales mesa'. Arpazoun kai to 1.17 giati fovountai oti tha to parei allos kai i aplistia tous exei girisei se ethnikopatriwtiko. Meta apo liges wres pou pernaei afti i mania kai mpainoun na doun sto Matchbook apodoseis. Kai o tsakalos pleon paei na parei kai ta apomeinaria kai exei anevasei sto 1.22. Tin idia wra kernaei kai tin paratasi sto 4. Gia ksekarfwma. Kanei trading kai kala....

To senario einai ipothetiko, den exw mplextei me kati tetoio. Alla aneta tha mporouse na simvei. Aneta omws. Kai milame oti mia mpaza 30-50miria einai stin kseftila efkolo na ginei me olo afto to senario kai me to na mpainoun kai mpouks na ta paiksoun. Giati olo to mouxampeti einai oti mpainoun mesa sto senario oi 'asxetoi pou kanan ta 100 tous 900 sto prwto match, kai meta paiksan 300 kai ta ekanan 2400. Kai meta paiksan 1500 kai ta kanan 10500 klp'. Kai telika apo ta 60 miria pou xathikan, zitima na piran ta 5-6-ante 10 miria oi asxetoi, giati posi psixi pia na exoun? Kai ta ipoloipa to tsakalaki pou ta estise...

To asteio einai oti an to kanei kapoios kati tetoio me methodo, ginetai na vgalei tosa kai parapanw!