Game-Set-Match

Pame twra ta games. 169 persi o ferrer (5 matches). Kia pio prin 96 (se 3), 94 (3), 178 (5).
O Nadal 169 (7, xwris na xasei kan set omws), 204 (7, exase mono ena set), 220 (exase 3 set, alla kai enas antipalos aposirthike sto 2-0 katw), 219 (7, 4 set xamena).
O Verdasco 157 (4), 134(4), 76 (2), 43 (1), 53 (2).

Tha lege kaneis oti den einai na akoumpiseis to 1.13 tou Nadal vs Ferrer gia pio polla tournament games. Kala an to paroume me to parelthon tote afou exoun mia isopalia perisi, to 25 pou dinei gia isopalia einai kalo! Profanws de mporei na paikseis kati tetoio, afta ginontai mallon 1/50, apla etixe. Kata ti gnwmi mou an iparxei value einai sto 1.13 kai pali, alla de tha to paiksw. Se mia etairia toso tis plakas osi i Bwin, to 1.13 kamia fora mporei na min kalo akoma kai gia kati pou exei 100% na simvei. Giati to value ftanei ws to 13%, oxi parapanw, kai afta ta mpourdela mporei ana pasa stigmi na prosferoun kati pou exei akoma megalitero value. Einai to legomeno 'opportunity risk', paizeis ta lefta sou se kati kalo, alla epeidi den ta exeis, xaneis efkairia gia kaliteri akoma ependisi.

De simvainei omws to idio kai me to 1.49 tou Nadal -.5 versus 2.44 +.5 tou Verdasco.

O Verdasco einai to 83 gennitheis opote to mellon einai ligo pio poli mprosta tou thewritika. Kai praktika, giati exei ftasei fetos sto peak tou apo apopsi thesis (noumero 7) kai meta ksanapese ligo sto 8 pou einai twra. Ginan epaggelmaties tin idia xroniame Rafa, alla o Nadal den prolave to Eurobasket tis Stuttgartis, pio to noima na genitheis to 85 pou i Ellada den epaize? Gennithike to 86 kai fantazomai exei akoma anamniseis me to Gkali (pou exase apo Spain ston omilo, alla de sas xalase mounopana pou vgikate 4oi. Stou EPI ti mouri, i poutsa tou Kampouri kai ola afta...). Vevaia tha mou peis, gennithike 3 June (Didimaki ki aftos) kai to Mundobasket tis Ispanias to 86 itan pio meta kai mas eixan riksei mia poutsa ston ponto, an thimamai kala 87-86. Alla re paidia, pou na to thimatai afto? Mwro itan tote...
Tespa, sto thema mas. Tha thimaste to Verdy apo ton imiteliko pou pige fetos sto Australian (eksou kai i psili tou thesi) opou exase 3-2 apo Nadal an kai to palepse ipervolika poli. Itan allo ena apo ta apeira ekswpragmatika match pou exoume dei se afto to athlima ta teleftaia 2 xronia kai pragmatika zievw tous arrwstous me to tennis gia tin epoxi pou zoun. I oli fasi exei anevasei to endiaferon mou gia to athlima toulaxiston 50% kai de mporeis na peis oti den to vlepa kai katholou gia na thimamai to Lendl kai ton Michael Chang ti xronia pou to pire. Evlepa panta, alla twra to athlima exei paei se allo epipedo, oxi giati allakse, alla epeidi toso o Fed oso kai o Nadal kanoun apla ekswpragmatika pramata. Kai an vlepate to Savvato Nadal-Djokovic imiteliko sto masters tis Madritis, opou o Nadal eklepse sto telos ti niki swzontas kamia 100 matchpoints se dio set, tote tha katalavainate oti paizei o theoulis na pernaei ti fasi 'tennis'. Diladi ti paiktis prepei na einai kai o Djoko gia na exei t'arxidia na paei na xtipisei etsi to Nadal sto xwma kai mesa stin edra tou? Deixnei ti apithano metallo exei kai aftos. Giati ante na eisai 2os kai na exeis mania na ftaseis enan prwto pou moiazei tote kaliteros olwn twn epoxws (Fed-Ex), alla na eisai tritos, na vlepeis tous DIO kaliterous isws olwn twn epoxwn mprosta sou, na ksereis oti o enas den prokeitai na paei pouthena sta konta, afou einai mikros, kai pali na pas kai na veltiwnesai toso sto xwma, enw eisai klassikos hardcourt paiktis, e afto re pousti de ginetai oute sta pio trella oneira twn tennis-nuts. Evlogimenoi einai oi anthrwpoi, stegna.

A, ti legame? Pali figame apo to thema, lol. Loipon nai... O verdy loipon eixe paiksei tote 5 sets gemata me Nadal, 4 me Tsonga (pou einai terastia paiktoura kai aftos, allo ena gamato match ekei, opoios to de to thimatai) stous 8 kai 5 me ton poli anevasmeno tote Andy Murray stous 16. Exei ti fimi tou maxiti kai einai alitheia. Alla o kosmos mperdevetai ligo me ti fasi. Nai, an paiksoun idio arithmo paixnidiwn, o Verdy einai poli pithano na paiksei perissotera games apo ton Nadal. Peripou sigouro. Omws katarxas de kserw kan an ginetai na paiksoun ton idio arithmo paixnidiwn. Einai vevaio fisika oti Rafa-Fed kai Djoko tha exount a 3 prwta noumera sto tablo. Apo ekei kai epeita, nomizw oti to noumero 4 to pairnei o Murray kai to 5 o verdy. Den einai anagkasmenoi na se valoun me vasi tin pagkosmia katataksi oi Galloi. Nomizw oti o Verdy an den parei to #5, pio pithano einai na parei to #4 apo to Murray para na pesei sto 6 i pio katw. An exei loipon eite to 4 eite to 5, tha paiksei semi me Nadal. An ton kerdisei magkia tou. To olo point einai to eksis: O Verdy dinei 7.6 na paei teliko stin bf kai den to zitaei kaneis se kapoia apodosi. An valoume oti to market den exei liquidity afti ti stigmi kai i gkaniota einai aisxri (436%, anti gia 200% afou exei dio nikites i sigkekrimeni agora), tote ta pragmatika tou odds einai mallon 15 kai parapanw. Diladi kapou 5-6% stin pragmatikotita na ftasei teliko. Ela omws pou o Nadal dinei 1.27 kai ton zitan sto 1.32. Otan se zitan sto 1.32, simainei oti katw apo 76% na pas teliko den exeis, ara 76% na paiksei toulaxiston ena parapanw match. Kai pio katw seed na parei omws, tote exei to provlima oti tha paiksei ena giro pio nwris me enan apo tous big-3. Ara poli pithano na paiksei 2 match ligotera apo Nadal.
Tha peite 'ma an epaize osa games epaize persi meso oro kai pigaine imiteliko' tha ekane 235 games kai tha kerdize in any case to stoixima, akoma kai me teliko tou Nadal. Tha pw egw oti an epaize omws osa epaize ena xrono prin, kai imiteliko na eftane, ekane 204 games sinolo. Arketo na kerdisei to stoixima persi, alla oxi oles tis alles xronies. In any case tha einai outsider na ftasei imiteliko. Me 2 match ligotera, kai pali tha kerdize perisi, alla den eimai katholou sigouros oti tha kerdisei fetos. Iparxoun 2 logoi gia afto. O enas einai oti o Nadal perisi ekane kati to apistefto akoma kai gia ta dika tou apistefta kai theika standards. Den einai katholou sigouro oti mporei na to epanalavei fetos, otan ton diskolevei toso o Djoko kai ton kerdizei mesa sto spiti tou sto xwma o Fed. An deite ola ta tournoua tou ta xwmatina fetos, einai arketa gemata ta sets. Kanei kai kati ittes apo del potro, klp. Vevaia, eipame, en merei einai pio gemata giati ta alla xwmatina den einai garros. Einai midway anamesa se harcourt kai garros. Afto eksigei na einai pio gemata kapws ta sets, alla den eksigei na kanei ittes apo Del Potro i Fed stin edra tou. Afto pou lew diladi einai oti o Nadal tha exei pio gemata sets fetos, book it, einai vevaio. Simvainei omws kai to allo, to opoio voithaei para poli to na paiksei kaneis Nadal: To poso gemata einai ta sets, einai amesi sinartisi kai tou poso kalos gia Garros einai o paiktis. Diladi o persinos ekswpragmatikos Nadal, mporei na mi se afine na elpizeis oti tha kanei gemata sets, sou apekleie omws taftoxrona tin periptwsi na min paei teliko. Oxi mono pige alla kseftelise entelws to Fed. Ara, akoma kai afta ta 169 games (pou nomizw tha meinei gia panta to record nikis tou garros me tosa liga) itan toulaxiston eksasfalismena. Enw poso eksasfalismena einai afta gia to Verdy? Apo tin alli, an o Verdy paei imiteliko, pou tha pei oti ekane tin ipervasi tou, to makran pithanotero senario einai oti epaize kai para poli kala, ara katharize me adeia sets tous prwtous girous. Periptwsi 2007 diladi. Fetos pou pige imiteliko sti Melvourni px, se hardcourt, oloi thimountai ta gemata 3 teleftaia paixnidia. Ksexnan omws oti sta prwta 3 match exase mono 12 points sinolo! Mexri na paiksei me to Nadal, eixe paiksei mono 124 games se 5 paixnidia hardcourt. Gia na katalavei kaneis, akoma kai aftos o idios o Nadal, o anthrwpos pou exei pio efkolo to break apo opoiondipote stin istoria isws, mexri ekeino to match eixe paiksei 132!!! Ara, to favori se aftin tin periptwsi spaei men, alla para ma para poli pio diskola apo oti fainetai. An o Nadal apokleistei nwris px. An pistevei omws kaneis oti o Nadal de tha paiksei kan imiteliko, mporei na to dwsei stin bf, kapoios tha to zitaei pio katw kai apo 1.10 otan anoiksei i agora gia semi. Einai kati diladi pou exei katw apo 10% na simvei. Kata ta alla, tha doume mallon to Nadal na diskolevetai ligo parapanw apo oti sinithws, alla kallita mporoume na doume kai to Verdasco na min katafernei na perasei apo ton 4o giro (den to exei kataferei allwste pote stou sto Garros, giati na to kanei twra?) i apla na pigainei ws ton 5o. Opws eksigisa, an paei imiteliko, pou tha nai ipervasi, tha simainei oti pithanotata katharise kai pio efkola ta sets stis prtes faseis tou tournoua.

Sinolika koitwntas to, diskolevomai na pistepsw oti exei katw apo 75% na vgei afto to bet, einai apolitws adinato na exei katw apo 70% kai an eprepe opwsdipote na pw, tha elega oti exei konta sto 83-85%. Akoma kai me 70% exei 4.3% value. Me 75%, pou epanalamvanw einai sintiritiki-otati ektimisi, exei 11.75% value. Me 83% exei 23.67% value. Einai diladi mikri i pithanotita na einai apla value kai megaliteri i pithanotita na einai arrwstimeno value. Katopin toutou, otidipote ligotero apo 3 units sto 1.49 tis Bwin Nadal more games played in the tournament verss Fernando Verdasco tha itan tigka aderfistiko. E, de tha poustepsoume sta geramata....