Ksana grafw edw ta bets pou eixa gia Mesogeiakous agwnes:
3 units tin Italia na parei ta perissotera metallia, 2.25 Bwin.
3 units tin Italia na parei ta perissotera xrisa metallia 2.00 Bwin
1.5 unit Italiana parei perissotera xrisa paroli me ton Tsonga +.5 games played over Haas 1.90 Bwin
Vasika pisteva arxika oti to 2.25 den paroliazotan, giafto kai meta evala to 2.00 pou me afisan na to paroliasw. Meta vevaia epaiksa kai to 2.25 se ola ta parolia, alla mia kai twra exei pesei de tha to valw pick.
Stin teleftaies 12 Mesogeiades i Italia exei kerdiei ta perissotera metallia stis 10 kai stin teleftaia itan isopalia me gallia, diladi tis 10.5 fores kai exei parei ta perissotera xrisa tis 9. Exei xasei ta xrisa mia fora gia 2 apo ti gallia stin Tynida to 2001 (opou eixe 14 parapanw metallia), mia fora to '79 vgike triti se xrisa pisw apo Enwmeni Yugoslavia kai Gallia, alla pire pali ta sinolika metallia. Kai mia fora ita i tsonta pou exase to 1993 192-121 apo Gallia ta metallia kai 83=37 ta xrisa.
Vevaia tha pei kaneis oti afto pou metraei kiriws einai ti egine prosfata kai tis teleftaia fora vgike isopali se sinolika metallia me Gallia kai mono ena panw apo Ispania kai se xrisa prwti me ena mono diafora apo Gallia. Den einai omws akrivws etsi. Stin praksi, 2 xwres palevoun gia tin prwtia sta metallia paradosiaka. Italia kai Gallia, opote kai stin tixi na to pareis to 2.25 einai value. I Ispania eftase toso konta apokleistika kai mono epeidi epaize entos (Almeria). Otan oi oikodespotes exoun terastia avanta (eite epeidi kseroun tis thalasses, tis pistes, ta gipeda, klp kalitera eite epeidi tous epitrepoun poli parapanw ntopa, eite giati empsixwnoun oi theates) stus therinous kai tous xeimerinous gavrous, katalavainete ti ginetai se mesogeiades. Opou mporei se polla agwnismata na pareis xriso kai na min kaneis kan oxi pagkosmio kai evrwpaiko revord, alla oute ethniko. Kai etsi i ntopa gia ta dika mas ta paidia paei sinnefo. Ara i Ispania itan fouska kai de mporei na xtipisei prwtia, ara menoun 2.
An thelete alles apodeikseis gia ti dinami tis edras: Ti xronia pou to pire tsonta i Gallia, to 1993, oi agwnes eginan sti Gallia. Stous epomenous, to '97, pou eginan sto Mpari, i Italia kerdise 193-146 ta metallia kai 76-55 ta xrisa, me defteri ti Gallia. To 2001 stin Tynida i Tynisia apo 12i stous proigoumenous, anevike 6i. I Ispania stin Almeria to 2005 pige kalitera apo pote.
To 1991 i Ellada stous agwnes tis Fanis -pali????- Petralia vgike 6i se xrisa, alla me diafora 4i se sinolika metallia (60, 46 i apomeni Tourkia) pou itan i kaliteri mas epidosi ever. Ta thimaste ta xrisa mas? Na pw tin alitheia thimomoun oti dithen eixame parei 8 kai oxi 9. An prospathisw na ta thimithw tha vrw kapou 5. Exoume kai leme: I Patoulidou nomizw eixe xasei sto ena apo ta dio agwnismata tis (eixe katevei 100 kai 110 empodia), apo mia Gallida, pithanon tin Aron, alla nomizw eixe parei ena xriso sta 100. O Kreanka sto ping-pong, nomizw stous prwtous agwnes tou apo tote pou egine Ellinas eixe parei argiro, alla isws kai xriso. Xriso eixe parei stin pigmaxis opwsdipote o arxitheos, arxipontiara, o Agathaggelos Tsiripidis, pou exei twra propotzidiko sti Saloniki, apenanti apo ton Agio Dimitrio kai ligo pio pros ta Ditika. Epi tis Agiou Dimitriou, ligo prin tin plateitsa ekeini apenanti apo tin ekklisia. Aftos o theos ton evlepes kai to liposoun, se kathe match evlepes na traei apistefto ksilo. Kai omws kerdize aneta sta simeia. Oi alloi varousan me oti eixan kai aftos tous xaideve, panta omws me to simeio tu gantiou pou metraei pontos. Ston teliko thimamai etrwge ksilo apo enan Ispano kai ton kerdise kapou 37-10 se simeia. Apla maestros. Xriso prepei na eixe parei stin pigmaxia kai ekeino to palikari me to katholou mialo kai to terastio talento, pou se simeia den kerdize pote, alla erixne knock-out tous pantes, o Giwrgos Stefanopoulos. Stin pali eixame parei opwsdipote 2 toulaxiston kai exw tin entipwsi parapanw, toulaxiston 3 xrisa. To ena itan ena allo ekswpragmatiko palikari o Poilikidis, an thimamai kala, pane kai 18 xronakia. Afto to palikari, otan pire to xriso anevike kai filise 3 seires theates kai ithele na filisei olo to gipedo! Episis eixe parei kai o Poikilidis, o mpravos pou exoun stin Pae Paok. Pirros, Poikilidis, Zagorakis, pas na pareis to diarkeias sou apo ta grafeia kai varane eneseis, oloi oi ntopakides se aftin tin omada mazeftikan.
Tespa, parasirthika. Kai to '63 sti Napoli i Italia pire 32 xrisa kai oloi oi ipoloipoi mazi 33. Einai loipon megali ipothesi i edra kai an vgaleis tis edra kai tous valeis se oudetero kerdize palia i Italia. Efkola i diskola. An dwsoume to varos stous teleftaious, diskola. ELA OMWS POU AFTOI OI AGWNES GINONTAI STIN PESCARAAAAAA. Kalws ta paidiaaaaaa. 50 metallia diafora apo to deftero kai tis mpales in da house vlepw. To mono kako me ta perissotetra xrisa einai oti to allo dinei parapanw. Kata ta alla ta perissotera xrisa exoun toulaxiston 65-70% na vgoun kai isws panw apo 70%. Ta perissotera metallia, apla einai sxedon sigoura re pousti mou. Na poume 80%? Ma ti na poume? Diladi an sto edinan 5 na parei opoiosdipote allos perissotera metallia tha to paizes? An de mporesw na paiksw panw apo 4k se afto, eilikrina de tha epaiza tin kalipsi sto 5, kai as einai oso surebet thelei. Tha prepei na perasw ta 4k anoiktos gia na arxisw estw na surebetiazw akoma kai an edine 5 to na vgei prwtos kapoios allos. Ara exei kai panw apo 80%. Apla pragmata...
Twra gia to paroli de xreiazetai na pw kati. Ta dio bets einai toso arrwsta value, eidika ta most medals, pou stin tixi na patas koumpia kai na ta kaneis paroli apla me otidipote, kata pasa pithanotita to paroli pou tha kaneis tha einai value. Poso mallon otan einai me kati (Tsonga) pou to exw gia 60% bet...
Update: 1 units na paei sta dio sets to Llodra-Becker 1.78 paroli me tin Italia perissotera metallia 1.85 (pleon) Bwin fisika 3.29 to paroli. 0.3 units afta ta dio me to +.5 tou Tsongka 1.90. 6.26 to paroli. 0.4 units ta dio prwta me to +.5 asous for Wimbledon ton Karlovic over Federer 1.85. 6.09 afto to paroli. Kai 0.3 units ta 4 mazi,11.57 apodosi to paroli.
De vlepw to logo giati na min to paroliazw me ta panta, eilikrina. Ithela na paiksw ligo to 2 sets afto, afou einai efkola 6% value. Vasika me stegna math einai more than 10% value. Den exw apopsi tennistiki gia to an tha vgei, klinw oti de tha vgei, alla de mporei na einai toso kako pou na min einai value kan. Eipa na to kanw pick etsi 1 unit kai mono tou allo ena, alla eilikrina den to epaiksa mono tou. Kai an to paiksw tha einai me skopo na to kalipsw an o Llodra parei to prwto set. To epaiksa me to allo account afou to prwto eixe maxarei kai sta paroli pleon. Prospathw na skeftw giati den einai 80% bet afto me ta metallia kai o logos pou mou vgainei einai epeidi einai 95% bet. Eilikrina diladi, eixan akrivws ta idia tin teleftaia fora, i edra fernei mexri kai 50% afskisi sta metallia alla mia pio normal ektimisi einai 35%. Fuck this kai vale 20%, einai still 30 metallia gia Italia panw kai apo aft tha xasei kapou 5-6 toulaxiston i Gallia (stin praksi xanei perissotera giati den katanemetai se ola ta athlimata omoiws, as poume se kapoia ousiastikaoute o enas oute o allos exoun elpida, alla tespa). 15% na to pas, pou einai afisika xamilo, vgaini panw apo 20 metallia diafora to spread. Genika an itan na dwsei kapoios spread metalliwn, otidipote katw apo 25 tha epaiza Italia. An itan 32.5 px, pali Italia tha epaiza. Oute kan sta 40 de tha akoumpousa Gallia se +40 2.00 apodosi. Sta 45 akoma de tha akoumpousa. Ara ti na leme? De tha akoumpousa sta 45 kai lew etsi gia na eimai super sintiritikos 20 metallia spread. Kai lew twra egw. Einai san ena match basket me total 300 kai 20 spread. Exei se ena tetoio match 10% na kerdisei to outsider? Etsi gia sigkrisi, se ena match NBA px me 200 total kai 16-17 spread, to outsider exei konta sto 5%. Kai den einai kan sigkrisima giati ena match NBA exei pollous pio correlated paragontes, px to favori mporei na exei trofiki dilitiriasi. Epipleon mporei gia kapoio logo (na steiloun ton coach, einai kourasmenoi, whatever) na ta skatwsoun. Epipleon oi pontoi de skorarontai enas kathe fora, exei diponta kai triponta. Den ipokeintai oi pontoi se katanomi poisson diladi,opws mporoun na ipaxthoun ta metalia. Afti ti stigmi eimai se net cafe kai de mou anoigei tin katanomi poisson, alla eimai vevaios oti an valw sto spiti px 170 kai 150 gia prosdokomena metallia twn dio, tha vgalei mia pithanotita to 150 na perasei to 170, katw apo 10%. Kai opws ksanapa, ta 20 metallia spread einai poli liga.
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Hehe, to ksera oti kati mou leipei apo stivo, alla de mporousa na thimithw. Vrika ena site pou exei tin istoria twn mesogeiakwn, mono gia stivo omws. I Gallida pou kerdise tin Patoulidou sta 100 empodia (kai oxi 110 pou egrapsa, den eixe ginei akoma andras apo ti ntopa) itan telika i Pikero. Kai ontws eixe parei ta 100m i Patoul. Xriso omws eixe parei kai o Koukodimos pou ksexasa, me ekeino to 8.26 pou argotera espase o idios gia panellinio (8.36 to xe paei, twra fantazomai tha to xei parei o arxixestis o Tsatoumas) kai einai akoma rekor agwnwn. Episis xriso eixe parei kai afti i poutana pou gamietai me karouli pou leei kai o Simos. Anna Verouliii gamiesai me karouliiiii
Kata ta alla stin pali eixame telika 2 xrisa 5 argira kai 2 xalkina. To ena itan o Poikilidis o ntopakias ontws, to allo den vrika poios itan, de mporw na thimithw an ta trella tou o allos o Poilikidis an ta eixe kanei se mikro teliko, se imiteliko i se teliko opws nomiza, pithana kai ta 3. Tous pigmaxous tous thimomoun kala. O Kallinikos (lol) Kreangka telika itan ontws argiros, kai de mporei re pousti na mou erthei poioi itan ta ipoloipa xrisa. 3 apo stoivo, 2 apo pigmaxia kai Poikilidis 6. Ena akoma apo palh, isws aftos pou thimamai, isws kapoios allos, pame 7. Poioi piran ta alla 2???
ΕΣΥ ΑΓΟΡΙ ΜΟΥ ΔΕΝ ΔΙΝΕΙΣ ΠΡΟΒΛΕΨΕΙΣ, ΜΑΘΗΜΑ ΚΑΝΕΙΣ.
ΕΥΤΥΧΩ ΠΟΥ ΑΠΟ ΣΤΙΒΟ ΞΕΡΕΙΣ ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΑ ΣΕ ΣΧΕΣΗ ΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΔΟΞΑ.
ΣΑΛΠΙ ΓΕΡΑ ΜΕΤΑΛΛΙΟ ΞΑΝΑ
ΑΤΑ
Geia sou Llodra, giontra, gamw ton peiraiaaaa. Terastia kavla to oti to match pige sta dio sets alla to kerdise o Becker pou itan to mikro outsider kai oxi o Llodra. Me afta xinw, se kati tetoia fainetai to edge kai to poso skatompakalistika vgazei apodoseis i Bwin. To secondary payout pou leme kai sto video-poker.
E re kai na kanoun kanena xazo ta metallia!!!! Pantws exei show, goustarw. Eilikrina oute sto 5 apodosi den tin kontrarw tin Italia.
Mon.
Vasika ta metallia vgainoun 87.3% an pareis mesa prosdokomena metallia 170 kai 150.
An pareis 175 kai 150 vgainei 91.8%.
An pareis 175 kai 145 vgainei 95.5% Oper edei deiksai.
Mon.
YG: na min pw ti vgainei kai gia 180-140 pou einai to kontinotero se normal etsi? 99% kai kati psila.
Loipon pame kai merika tennis twra. Einai ola mikrotera value apo oti sintihws, alla einai value apo 3-5%.
Epeidi den poliexoun apopsi mesa, kai epeidi einai mikra value pou theloume na to kanoume ligo megalitero,tha kanoume parolakia.
Detrot Tigers 2.10 mesa stous st louis cardinals.
Dancevic-Santoro 2 sets 1.73.
Becker Schuettler 2 sets 1.74
Navarro-Sluiter 2 sets 1.80.
Apo 0.4 units se oles tis pithanes diades (6). Apo 0.3 units se oles tis pithanes triades (4) kai 0.2 units sto paroli. Diladi 2.6+1.8+0.2= 4 units sinolo. Vevaia afto afkanei to variance, an piaseis 2/4 pou einai to pio pithano senario, apo ekei pou de tha exanes sxedon tipote, xaneis kamia 2.6 units net, anti gia 0.43 max pou tha exanes akoma kai me to xeirotero 2-2. Episis sto 1-3 apo ekei pou tha exanes 2.27 max, xaneis 4 units. Alla sto deftero pio pithano senario (kai oxi makran deftero) tou 3-1 pairneis kana unit parapanw kai exeis kai to oxi apithano jackpot tou 4/4.
Prosoxi pantws: Proswpika exw paiksei kai ta mona kai genika o swstos tropos risk management einai aftos. Vazeis arketa parapanw sta mona, px 1 unit each prin paikseis tetoia fasi paroli. Vasika kai parapanw prepei na paroun ta mona an einai na paikseis 0.3 units tis 3ades. To orthotero einai, variemai na kanw tis poli poliplokes prakseis twra gia ta paroli me vasi Kelly Criterion, kati pio konta se 1 unit each ta mona, 0.3 units diades, 0.1-0.15 units triades kai kati se stil 0.05 gia tetrada, Opote don't try this at home too much.
Apla den ithela apo ti mia na mpleksw me idiaitera mikra noumera units kai apo tin alli den ithela na exw sinolo 8 units se afta. An den paizeis full Kelly, pou kaneis mas den paizei giati einai idiaitera epikindino na pontareis toso megalo pososto tis bankas sou, psixologika kiriws epikindino, para mathimatika, kai paizeis poli mikra posa se sxesi me ti banka sou, opws en prokeimenw kai eseis kai egw, tote ligo parapanw value apo ta paroli einai efprosdekto afou to risko antexetai.
Me alla logia na eixa skopo na pontarw 4 500rika se afta, tha epaiza toulaxiston 4 400ria mona prwta kai ta ipoloipa 400 pou menoun se diafora parolia. Afto einai to swstotero. Twra epeidi einai ligo ksis't'arxidia sou bets se sxesi me ta klassika tis bwin, de vazw kai toso polla kai gnwrizw oti an paiksw 500 sinolo px, tis perissoteres fores tin alli mera tha exw xamena like 350-500, ligotero sixna tha parw like 160 parapanw apo oti tha epairna me ta mona kai apo kamia fora tha kanw sweep kai tha parw ligo pio ok fragka. Alla an xasw ta 500 i 350, pou tha einai to sixnotero, den epirreazei poli tin ikanotita mou na valw avrio alla bets, den kanei megali zimia sti banka mou diladi. An ta posa itan megalitera se sxesi me ti banka, tote epivallontai prwta ta mona, oxi epeidi allazei to value, alla epeidi allazei to posa tha mporw na pontarw an paw apo 0 sta 4 ws 2 sta 4.
Mon.
Apla mpales oi Tigreis tou Detroit magkes. Paixnidi me over/under 8.5 runs, ksekinan na battaroun sto prwto, kalws -ta vrikame, ektos paizoume- ta paidia, 4-0! Kai tous exw kai gia first half, an lipothimisoun apo edw, apla gamw ti mana tous. Paikste gia to dokimazomeno lao tou Detroit kai tou Michigan in general pou xanei tis douleis tou stin aftokinitoviomixania gamw tin trella mou. Oi Pistons, ta kaka paidia, dielisan afotou antallaksan to Billups me ton Answer (my ass, answer o Iverson, se ti? Pws tha parete 300 epitheseis seri kai tha gamisete tin omada sas?). Oi Detroit Tigers einai i ntropi tou NFl, kataferan na ginoun i prwti omada pou teleiwse sezon 0-16. Kai meta apo apeires xronias poutsas episis. I apotixia einai o kanonas, paizoun tosa xronia se mia apo tis xeiroteres perifereies tou NFL, polles fores sti makran xeiroteri, kai katafernoun na kanoun 2,3,4 nikes kai tetoia. Thelei prospatheia. Kai twra 0-16. Kai exei kai tin omada o kargiolis o Ford. To kamari tis polis, oi erithropteroi Detroit Red Wings, defending champions pigan teliko kai mas ragisan tin kardia, xasan 4-1 apo tous Pingouinous tou Pitsburgh. Poutana koinwnia, to kwloxaneio to Pitsburgh zitima na exei ligo kalitero iliko apo mas sto NFL kai afoti pairnoun prwtathlima kai emeis kanoume 0-16. Kai san na mi ftanei afto, xanoume kai sto NHL apo aftous.
Me alla logia palikaria, paikste gia tin poli tou Detroit, ena Baseball mas emeine, mi gamieste. 4-2 pige gamw ti mana tous. Ante noiwste ligo re mounia.
Mon.
Pfew, ta paliomouna oi Cardinals exoun meiwsei se 4-3 kai sto bottom of the 7th inning vazei allagi gia prwti fora ton super-star (nomizw noumero ena paiktis sto basebal afti ti stigmi) Albert Pujols gia na mpatarei, en tw metaksi exoume valei mesa kai to relieve pitcher. Wraia lew twra tin katsame, tha to koumpwsei to home run. Alla eftixws to palikari o pitcher mas den eklase mia kai de fagame ekei isofarisi (i na perasoun kai mprosta). Sto top of the 8th evalan kai aftoi to relieve pitcher tous kai exoume valei 2 runs. 6-3. Ante 2 inning menoun twra palikaria. Gamiste tous. Mpeite mesa kai paikste dinata!
6-3 kai bottom of the 9th, alla mou vazei skilarapa closeout pitcher. Krata re skile, akoma kai enas ipanthrwpos san esena de mporei na dwsei 3 runs, right? Right lew????????????
Wx-wx-wx erxetai o Pujols. Edw tha krithoun ola.
Etsiiii, pswlia, ton vgalame kai afton, twra mono me lipothimia xanoume.
me to katharo 6-3...
Ante pali ta idia...
Ksekinaei to deftero set, to prwto to exei parie o schuettler 3-6. Kai spaei o becker kai paei 3-1 panw. Kai spaei kapaki o schuettler, to kanei 3-3, ksanaspaei, to kanei 5-3. Wpa lew, to piasame. Krataei to servis tou o Becker, spaei, ksanakrataei kai den paei kan tie-break re pousti mou, ksanaspaei. Gia to theo gamw.
Tespa, toulaxiston o Dancevic kerdise 6-4, 6-4 to Santoro kai etsi ola tha krithoun apo to an tha lipothimisei o nikitis tou tie-break metaksi Navarro kai sluiter. Opoios kanei to 1-0, elpizw na kanei kai to 2-0, an kai den exw kalo feeling...
Mon.
O schuettler kanei 2 break kai paei kai spazeti 2 fores pisw gia na pane trito set. O Sluiter, pairnei to prwto sto tie break kai ekei pou paei na parei pisw to break tou sto deftero kai na pame pali gia tie-break, apo 0-40 to xanei. Gamw tin katadiki mou. Opote pianoume mono mia diada pou kerdizei net 1.05 units. Oi ipoloipes diades, triades kai tetrada, xanoun(3.6 units). Ara pame 1-10 -2.55 units. Kai pame YTD: 22-140-2 +69.81 units.
Mon.
122-140-2 +69.81 obviously ennoousa. I klirwsi tou Tsonga kai tou Karlovic einai pantws pantelws athlia. O Haas exei asteio draw apo tin alli. Telika an perasei ton Karlovic ston trito giro o Tsonga paizei meta me Verdasco kai meta me Fed. Alla opws kai na exei, o Haas ws tote exei mono ena diskolo match, me Cilic i Ljubicic ston trito giro...
Lay to 1.30 tou haas. 2 units. Afto einai san back 4.33 ale mou. Eimai eknevrismenos eksigw later.
Mon.
Me ton Cilic paizei, einai san na paizw Cilic 4.33 diladi.
1 unit sto Soderling +4.5 asous over Federer 2.19, bwin. Katalavainw oti o fed exei kanei tous ligoterous asous tou se ligotera games played, alla kai pali de mou kollaei to noumero. Episis katalavainw oti i apodosi iponnoei oti me antipalo to fed kaneis kai ligoterous asous, enw me antipalo to Soderling perissoterous, alla den einai akrivws etsi. O Kohlscreiber ekane mono 5 me fed ok, alla sta proigoumena dio ekane 8 (se perissotera games) kai 9 (se poli perissotera games). O De Guillermo garcia lopez ekane 3 me fed kai 6 me ton antipalo tou ston prwto giro. Sigoura peftoun oi asoi sou an paizeis me fed, alla milame kai oti oi asoi tou Soderling einai peripou diplasioi, etsi?
Epeita den einai teleiws akrives oti o Soderling einai toso poli xwni pisw epeidi exei faei poli parapanw asous. Efage 23 apo Granollers se 45 games, alla o granollers sto proigoumeno evale 22 se 39 games me ton andrea beck. Episis efage 20 apo Almagro se 33 games, pou einai athlio. Alla o almagro evale kai 28 asous se 53 games sto proigoumeno me ton karol beck. Ligoterous ana game, alla pali pollous. Kai 33 se 63(!!!) games me to Monaco.
Opote ok, einai alithes oti den kaneis toso efkola aso me ton Fed kai oti kaneis pio efkola me antipalo to Soderling, alla still exei peripou diplous asous kai pairnoume +4.5 2.19. Diskolo na einai toso xeirotero apo 50-50.
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