All you can do is push all-in with the best hand. Then let the chips fall where they may...
Me alla logia paikse to kalo stoixima kai an erthei anadromos Ermis kai gamithei to simpan, xase 30 units se mia mera kai ti na ginei. Pantws den exeis paso me afta pou exei kanei twra i Betfair. Opws leei kai o stoiximatikos mentoras mou o Fezzik (pou einai toulaxiston 10 fores pio trellos, ekkentikos, egwkentrikos kai anwrimos, by all accounts) IT IS CLOBBERING TIME! Diladi paizeis kai tis mpales. Bag of cash, save $5 for socks, freight train of cash klp...
Ti ennow: BF Tie KKE-OIKOLOGOI (se edres) 3.15. 3 units. Kalipsi me to under 2.5 edres stin Expekt gia laos-oikologoi, 2.90, 2 units ekei. An oi Oikologoi diladi vgaloun 2ri edra, kerdizei i isopalia, pontaroume oti to KKE de tha ftasei stin triti edra, kai th pan 2-2. An de vgei i isopalia stis edres, elpizoume oti to Laos De tha parei ti defteri. Afto enexei kindino. Alla eipame. An den eixe kanena kindino, de tha itan tzogos.
KKE-Siriza. 3 units sto tie 3.50 BF. 3 units kai sto under 3.5 edres oi dio tous expekt, 2.50. Apla afinomai anoiktos na min parei triti edra to KKE. To fovamai, alla de mporei na kineisai mono me to fovo. An ginei isopalia, pairnw to tioe, xanw to under, alliws to siriza vgazei mia, xanw tin isopalia kai pairnw to under.
Kai pame twra to trito to makritero, to opoio omws de tha vgei. Lay sti BF sto 1.05 i back stro 21 (same thing) ti ND most seats. Eksigw later.
Ok, eksigisi: An i ND xasei katw apo 4.54% (pragma pou exei peripou 60% thewritika na simvei. Kai parapanw exei thewritika, alla egw fovamai oti einai at best 50-50, giati klinw pros pasok sto handicap), tote to pasok de ginetai na vgalei parapanw apo mia edra extra apo ND. An loipon volepsoun ta ipoloipa, i ND tha exei proteraiotita enanti tou Pasok kai tha vgalei afti tin edra. Einai poli diskolo na ginei afto, de mporw na dextw oti einai akatorthwto omws. Px, an to Pasok parei 38% kai i ND akrivws 33.5%, tote an kapoios apo tous 2 vgalei edra sto ipoloipo, afti einai i ND. Me 33.5% exei poli kales pithanotites na to kanei. To problem einai oti to 33.5% moiazei poli psilo gia nd. De lew loipon oti tha vgei. Alla sto 50% pou i ND perasei se ipoloipo to Pasok(diladi diafora metaksi tous mikroteri tou 4.54%), tote tha paixtoun 2 edres metaksi -logika- siriza, oikologwn kai ND. To opoloipo tou Laos, i ND, AN EINAI ENTOS 4.5 MONADWN APO PASOK, tha to perasei. Diladi an de xasei tsonta i ND, tote logika prepei na perasei to ipoloipo tou Laos, alliws, an px o Laos paei 6%, tote prepei na xasei tsonta i ND (pragma vevaia poli pithano). An o Laos paei ws 5.5%, exei ligotero apo 1% ipoloipo, ara edra diskola na vgalei, akoma kai an den ti vgalei i nd, tha tin vgaloun siriza kai oikologoi. Twra, kaka ta psemmata: Akoma kai an o laos meinei ekei, akoma kai an to KKE de vgalei triti edra (einai eksairetika diskolo na vgalei, thelei 10.5% toulaxiston gia na exei estw iparktes elpides), kai fisika panta stin periptwsi pou oi dio megaloi exoun ligotero apo 4.54% diafora, kai pali einai poli diskolo na parei mia apo tis 3 edres pou tha einai ston aera i ND. Tha pan se oikologous kai siriza. Alla otan exeis 3 kommata gia 2 edres, ksekinan apo 67% (an perimename idia ipoloipa), as min exei toso, as exei 30% i ND. Sinolo loipon exei 50%x30%= 15% na vgalei 8i edra. Kai tote ginetai ISOPALIA me pasok se edres.
Kai epeidi oi tsopanides pou paizoun sti BF de diavazoun ta rules, stin isopalia DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY. Diladi plirwnesai to miso tis apodosis sou. Diladi to 21 tis ND ginetai 10.5. Se afto stoxevoume. An i ND exei ena 10% na vgalei idies edre me to pasok, to stoixima einai kalo. Asfalws kai den perimenw oti to stoixima afto tha kerdisei. Einai omws sta oria tou adinatou na min einai value. De mporeis na peis oti apokleietai i ND na exei 10% na vgalei akoma kai to poli psilo 34%. Afou 41% pire stis ethnikes. De tha to parei, alla kai me 33.5% einai favori gia 8i edra. Me 33% thes kwlia, me anything less, thes monster kwlia, pou de ginetai. Genika, einai eksairetika diskolo, alla oxi apithano.
Telos, no matter what the exit polls say...ta mikra kommata (eidika siriza kai oikologoi) oti kai na len ta exit polls, sti roi twn apotelesmatwn tha exoun arxika mikrotera pososta. Opws kai i diafora pasok-nd tha einai anthrwpini arxika, sti roi twn apotelesmatwn. Meta pou mpainoun athines klp erxetai i poutsa. I agora, tha einai anoikti. An kapoio tsakalaki se any apo afta ta kanalia dwsei mia karta 'oi edres opws tha katanemontan afti ti stigmi', tote einai poli ptihano na grafei 8-8, vasika sxedon vevaio an tixei kai dwsoun tin karta nwris. Giati kai ta mikra kommata tha mazevoun fora akoma (eidika siriza, oikologoi) alla kai i ND tha exei pio nromal pososta stin panta pio polwmeni eparxia. Kai tote sto live bet, kapoio tsakalaki tha anevasei to pasok sto 1.40 (giati an paikseis 1.40 kai kanei x to pasok, tote pairneis 0.70 Ara xaneis kai 30 sta 100 pou epaikses gia na pareis 40). Kai tote kaliptoume san tis vrwmopoustres. Giafto, an kai de nomizw oti paizei na vgei afti i kamarwti paparia, paizw 2 units sto 21 tis ND (BF). I to lay sto 1.05 pou einai to idio pragma. Exw kanei kai lay 1.04 (san na pairneis 26 ti nd einai afto). Elpizoume toulaxiston na mporesoume na kalipsoume.
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2.4 units στο +1.5% του ΛΑΟΣ με τους Οικολόγους στο 1,95.
Κυριολεκτικά την τελευταία στιγμή το πρόλαβα το 1,95 το οποίο έπεσε στο 1,80 πια. Το αντίστοιχο ΛΑΟΣ-ΟΙΚΟΛΟΓΟΙ στην expekt είναι στο 1.55 πια αλλά το +2% του ΛΑΟΣ.
Η betoto έχει βγάλει το ΠΑΣΟΚ-ΝΔ. Πριν το βγάλει έδινε 2 απόδοση το -3,5% του ΠΑΣΟΚ και 1,72 το +3,5% της ΝΔ.
Τα γκάλοπ όμως των τελευταίων ωρών είναι πολύ άσχημα για ΝΔ και μάλλον παίχτηκε το -3,5% του ΠΑΣΟΚ ή προλάβανε να μην παιχτεί. Μέχρι αυτή την ώρα πάντως δεν έχουν βγάλει νέο στοίχημα.
Πληροφορίες λένε πως ο ΛΑΟΣ επωφελείται από τις τελευταίες διαρροές της ΝΔ και υπάρχει περίπτωση να φτάσει και πάνω από 6%
Το +1,5% με τους Οικολόγους μου άρεζε anyway γιατί από ψηφοφόρους της ΝΔ όσοι ήταν να φύγουν προς τους Οικολόγους έχουν φύγει ενώ ο ΛΑΟΣ έχει ακόμη περιθώριο να πάρει. Από την άλλη το ΠΑΣΟΚ δείχνει να αυξάνει τη συσπείρωσή του με κάποιους ψηφοφόρους τους να επαναπατρίζονται από τους Οικολόγους.
Re magka, exei apistefti plaka. I gkaniota einai peripou 9-10% kai par'ol'afta peftoun tsounami bets kai stis dio meries.
Ti ginetai?
Apo ti mia meria einai aftoi pou exoun diavasei ta gamimena rules kai kseroun oti px oi oikologoi exoun aneta 65% na paroun defteri edra kai na kanoun x me to KKE. Emeis diladi. Pairnoume ta 3.40, 3.35, 3.50 klp pou dinoun, akoma kai ta 3ria. Otan teleiwnoume tin 'epithesi' afinoume anoikta lay, mpas kai tsimpisei kanena koroido.
Meta mpainei kapoios kavliaris kai nomizei oti vrike lavraki. Kai varaei to KKE ws to 1.32!!!!!!!!!! Giati o foukaras nomizei oti paizei poos tha parei mia parapanw psifo! Kai varaei sto stavro. Etsi exw ftasei na exw parei ena karo oikologous akoma ka sto 4, to 3.85 klp. Psemma sto 3.50 kai to 3.40. Poli prama omws.
Epeita einai kai o Siriza. Genika, ton paizw na patwsei to Siriza meses-akres. Alla re file, an piasei 6.2%, einai efkola favori na parei ti defteri edra. Kai ekei dinei kai 4 kai akoma parapanw (otan epitithentai oi asxetoi), exei ftasei na tairiastei kai sto 1.15. Kapoios foukaras nomize oti einai poios tha parei mia psifo panw kai ekei. Sto telos, exw ftasei na pairnw isws ta perissotera an telika o Siriza (pou den ton pistevw katholou) kanei apla to kathikon tou, parei 6.1% kai vgalei defteri edra!
Trelli katastasi!
2 units kalipsi na kerdisei o Federer, 1.76. BF.
Ante kai to teleftaio unit vale. 1.76 kai pali dinei. Kai leei na to parei 3-2 o del potro kai na ta xasw ola. Alla as to parei kai no problem...
Mon.
Kove ti xasoura short, me Laos +1.5 1.75 3 units Bwin. Ta pragmata allaksan, me 2 meres mono xrono, de tha to riskarw, kaliptw.
Mon.
To prwi epaiksa under (enw palia eixa maxarei to over!!!!!!!!) to under tou laos-oikologoi. To Paiksa poli, epeidi itan kalipsi (an kai oxi apoliti) tou kke-oikologoi.
Kala to anevasa to over, alla twra einai wra gia neo max sto over!!!!!!! 3 units sto ov 2.5 1.75!!!!!!!!!
Skeftomai na ksanavaresw to under 3.5 tou kke-siriza, logw siriza. Kai taftoxrona na paiksw to x sti BF ki alla.
Tha to kanw omws ws eksis: -1.5% 1.70 3 units stin Expekt. Kai allo ena unit sto 4 tou x sto kke-siriza sti BF. Mporei na exw apo 10 units se kathe meria sto telos, lol!
Mon.
AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA, tous exw trelanei, exw xasei vevaia kai egw ti mpala, alla sigoura tin exasan kai aftoi!!!!!!!! To asteio einai oti mou dexontai megala bets stin Expekt! Kai afto giati tous paizw ta akrivws antitheta kathe fora! Paizw diladi ena skasmo sto over 2.5 edres 2.24 tou laos-oikologoi. Kapaki, vriskw simera afto me tin isopalia kai tous paizw 300 sto under! E, lene tou pousti, ta dexontai, sou leei, de mporei na piasei kai to over kai to under, an einai na kanei surebet, as kanei. Kseftilizw to 2.90 tou under monos mou simera sto 1.85. Kai paw kai tous paizw mpales sto over 1.75 twra pou eida oti kai o laos kai oi oikologoi exoun polles elpides gia edra, opote oi dio mazi, einai poli pithano (akoma kai gia 4).
Exw xasei ti mpala, alla kai i expekt den paei pisw!
Mon.
ok, sti bwin den exei meinei ortio stoixima!!!!!!!
Kai stin expekt ksanakseftilistikan oi apodoseis.
Etsi gia tin plaka 3 units sto 1.02 tis BF sto ND +3.5 edres!!! An xsei i ND 13.62% kai kati parapanw, px 15%, ginetai kai afto. An to kanw kai afto, as xasw ta 2k pou tha valw sto 1.02 kai to 1.01, otan eksafanisw to 1.02!
Mon.
E nai re pousti, afto to middle tha to piasw egw. MIDLLARA 3 units Pasok nikitis eklogwn (bwin, expekt, anywhere, egw bwin to paizw). 3 units!!!!! Den kanw plaka, to epaiksa ontws kai malista max. Eixa 7k sto logariasmo kai evala 2k, an kai piran telika mono 500.
Fisika, egw o logos pou to paizw einai teleiws allos. Egw to paizw giati prosferei pontous, pollous, sto binside. Kai nai, de nomizw oti exei 1% na xasei. Pistevw oti exei 0% na xasei. Oti xazomara kai na pei se mia mera o Jeff, den paizei na to girisei. Oti malakia kai na kanei o Karamanlis, 15% de tha xasei. Egw afto to gamimeno to middle tha to piasw. Kai 0.09 units, etsi? HAHHAHHAHAH.
Mon.
To loipon: Imoun YTD:82-102-1 +25.76 units
O del potro palepse poli alla exase 3-2 apo 2-1 panw. O kwlos o fed pire to deftero se tie-break kai genika ekane to prwto tou break sto 4o set!!! Kai meta gamithike.
Xanw 2 units apo del potro for winner. Xanw 0.5 units apo to na min parei panw apo set o fed. Kerdizw 0.73 units apo to del potro +4.5 games. Kai kerdizw 2.18 units apo tis kalipseis panw sto fed (kai oi 2 ginan stin idia paodosi, 1.76). Ara 2-2 +.41 units.
YTD:84-104-1 +26.17 units.
lewis under 18,5 pts 1.85
ariza un 10,5 pts 1.85
apo 1.5 units afta.
kai apo 2 units kobe ov 4.5 assists 1.65
gasol under 11.5 rebounds 1.75
Mon.
episis 1.5 units sto gasol under 18.5 pts 1.85. Panta Bwin.
Κ.Κ.Ε. ΑΛΛΑΓΗ - ΔΕΥΤΕΡΗ ΚΑΤΑΝΟΜΗ...
Tie break played sto teliko, oxi 3 units 2.41. Tha to kalipsw.
MOn.
bwin
Lol I bf exei 2.30 na paixtei tie break right now. Tha valw 1 unit ekei kai 2 units sto 2.00 (giati den exei poli liquidity sto 2.30).
Mon.
1.5 units under 142 tis Sacramento Monarchs-Seattle Storm sto WNBA, paroli me to 1.01 tou Pasok. 1.93 diladi to paroli.
Mon.
Me atsalini amina i agapimeni mas katagida tou Seattle kerdise tis monarxides tou Sacramento 71-61. Efkolo to under. 1.40 units panw apo afto.
YTD:86-104-1 +27.57 units.
Mon.
Loipon: to na paixtei i na min paixtei tie-break einai actually sure bet. Gia mia akomi fora itan kwlofardoi sti bwin kai paixtike. etsi xanoume 3 units alla pairnw 2 apo to 2.00 kai 1.30 apo to 2.30, ara 1-0 +.3 units.
YTD:87-104-1 +27.87.
Mon.
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