Update: Giati evala ton titlo... Exete anarwtithei pote giati xanoun toso sixna oi asoi sas kai oi papades sas sta tournoua? Einai aplo, giati o theos einai donk. To idio simvainei kai sto stoixima kai pantou. Idou i apodeiksi:
2/6/2009 2:07 πμ Μονό στοίχημα N. Dechy/A. Ram - N. Petrova/M. Mirnyi (Πόσα σετ θα παιχτούν στο ματς; (Best of three)) 2 σετ 2 σετ 184.00 1.63 299.92
Epaiksa afto to stoixima psaxnontas ta lathos pragmata, mperdeftika re paidi mou teleiws. Ekana lathos ipologismous. Kai me to pou to vazw, vlepw oti kati de skeftomoun kai oti to ipologiza teleiws lathos kai oti gia tin akriveia itan oute kan oudetero stoixima, alla poli kako. E, opws vlepete pige kai kerdise. Etsi thelei, kathesai sxizesai sto psaksimo, vriskeis 15 kala bets pou surebetiazontai emmesa i amesa, vazeis ws ofeileis parapanw sti meria pou einai to value, xaneis meta 14/15 fores or so kai pairneis ta paparia mou. Kai paizeis mia malakia meta apo brainfart, kai ekei o kalos theoulis paei kai sto kerdizei to stoixima, gia na se epivravefsei gia tin paparia sou....
Gia tin wra kratiste ta eksis: 1 unit sto 2.10 tis kakasximis Kuznetsova na kerdisei ti skatimavri Serena Williams. I xontri paizei athlio tennis kai i eirwneia einai oti apokleistike prwti i aderfi tis pou epaize poli, ma poli, kalitera. Apo tin Agnes Szavay, i opoia me ti seira tis apokleistike me katw ta xeria apo ti Roufokavlova, eee, Lariggopipilozova, Chibulkova, kati tetoio tespa.
Panta atixi itan afti i Venus. Me diafora kaliteri paiktria apo tin aderfi tis, alla to megalo ksespasma to ekane i Serena tote, epiase tin kali forma otan eprepe kai pire parapanw titlous. Twra einai skia tou eaftou tous kai malista paxia skia.
1 unit sto na min parei set i Serena 3.82 Bwin.
1.5 units na paei sta 2 sets to match, 1.85. Vlepontas kaneis oti toso to 2 sets oso kai to 3 sets dinei tin idia apodosi (1.85) diaisthitika katalavainei oti de mporei na einai swsto. Kanontas omws tis prakseis me vasi to poso favori einai i Serena (poli ligo) vgainei swsto to 1.85. Ara giati einai lathos? Giati ta sets se ena match tennis den einai entelws aneksartita to ena apo to allo. An se ena match exoun apo 50% i kathe paiktria, de simainei oti exoun kai 0.5x0.5 i mia na kanei to 2-0 kai 0.5x0.5 i alli na kanei to 2-0, opote athroisma 2x0.5x0.5= 50%. Giati opoia kerdizei to ena set, einai pithanotero oti einai se kaliteri mera/exei kaliteres apantiseis sto styl tis allis/exeis proetoimastei kalitera/ irthe stin alli periodos/ klp. Etsi an deite apodoseis sti BF gia to set betting, ti mia ti zitan sto 3.65 kai tin alli sto 3.45, ara de mporei na exei ligotero apo 1/3.65 + 1/3.45=27.397% + 28.898%=56.295% to opoio epi 1.85 mas dinei 4.1% value. Me pio akriveis ipologismous vgainei 5.4% to value. Opote avrio, efkola 2-1 Serena:)
De tha surebetiasw, stin praksi mporei kai na to kanw an dextoun arketa, apla den exei kai panta noima. Apla to dinw ligotera units, stin praksi kapou toso anoiktos tha eimai sto kathena.
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Kai twra to fili tou thanatou sto Del Potro: 2 units na parei to garros, 6.00 apodosi,BF. Afto me alla logia simainei oti avrio -pou dinei 1.22- tha apokleistei apo to Robredo. Vasika o Robredo aksizei allo 0.1 unit sto 65, afti einai kai i kalipsi mou. Enas apo tous dio avrio tha exei xasei vevaia.
Elpizw o Robredo.
Loipon gia mena avrio einai to pio diskolo match gia Del Potro, de vriskw kai poli swsti tin apodosi, alla den exw kai ta kotsia na ton kontrarw pera apo tin kalipsi tou 0.1 units pou evala. To skeftomai loipon ws eksis: O Del Potro dinei 1.23 avrio. An paei teliko, tha dinei parapanw apo 1.60 kontra se enan ek twn Soderling/Gonzalez? De nomizw. An O Soderling kanei kapoia megali emfanisi, isws dinei parapanw o Del Potro apo toso. Alla min ksexname oti xthes me Davydenko, pou einai way past his prime, o soderling edine 3. Kai me Gonzalez dinei 2.05 peripou. Epipleon, an paei teliko o Del Potro, tote kata pasa pithanotia tha exei perasei panw apo ton Federer. Kai se keini tin periptwsi de mporei na dinei panw apo 1.60. No way me antipalo to Gonzalez, kai as einai kaliteros ligo gia Garros apo Soderling. Me antipalo Soderling, ti na pw, an exei kanei terastia emfanisi sto semi o soder, isws dinei elaxista parapanw o Del Potro, alla pali oxi an exei perasei to Fed o Del Potro. Nomizw oti overall einai sintiritikotati ektimisi to 1.60. 1.23x1.60=1.968. Ara an dinei 3 i parakatw sto semi me Federer, eimaste cool me to 6.
Twra einai megali kouventa to ti tha dinei me Fed. Gia mena an o Fed katapiei to Monfils efkola, tha dinei kai panw apo 3 o Del Potro isws. Afto omws de simainei oti tha einai kai swsto. An avrio o Monfils dinei 4 sto no vig line, tote de vlepw giati o Del Potro prepei na dinei panw apo 3. Epipleon iparxei kai mia 25% pithanotita na ta tinaksei avrio o Fed me Monfils. Opote me ti mia tha einai kalipsimo to stoixima. Sinolika, o Del Potro se aftin tin katastasi pou einai, mou thimizei entona ton Guga (Gustavo Kuerten) otan prwtopire to garros. Ierosilia ligo na to peis afto, ok o Guga itan kaliteros. Alla thimizei. Afto pou einai i megali kavla me ton Del Potro (pou den ton pisteva paliotera) einai oti einai idiaitera cool. An deite poso efkola apotinakse apo panw tou tin piesi pou askouse o kosmos gia ton diko tous Tsonga, deixnei paikti me to swsto mindset. Afto einai pou me kanei kai pataw ti skandali. Giati olo to tournoua girnaei girw apo tin psixologia kai pws mporeis na palepseis to 'afti einai i efkairia mou'. O Djoko den to palepse me ton Kohlscreiber, pou epaikse poli kala men, alla oxi arketa kala gia na peis oti aftos to pire kathara kai oxi to exase o Djoko. Kiriws to exase o Djoko. O Haas epaikse pantelws athlia me Fed kai edeikse oti mporei na agxwthei parapanw apo enan Fed pou itan agnwristos apo to diko tou agxos oti 'afti einai i efkairia mou twra pou efige o gamias mou'. O Murray oute sizitisi, tou katevase ta vrakia o Gonzalez. Mono o Soderling exei deiksei oti de masaei t'antera tou, alla einai xeiroteros kai apo ton methavriano tou antipalo kai apo Del Potro. O Robredo de nomizw oti tha spasei, oute o Gonzalez, apo apopsi psixologias. Alla ligotero olwn aftwn o Del Potro. Kai o Monfils an kerdisei to Fed, pali pistevw oti tha spasei mprosta sti megali proklisi tis prokrisis se teliko xwris Nadal. Me alla logia einai gia mena me diafora o pio cool olwn, kai fisika o defteros kaliteros paiktis meta apo fed.
Epipleon einai o monos pou kerdise to Nadal stin arxi tis xwmatinis xronias, otan akoma gamouse o Nadal. Iparxoun diaforoi pio sinthetoi tropoi kalipsis (px na pareis perissotero del potro kai na kontrareis to 1.23 me Robredo) an pistevei kaneis oti kalo to 6, alla aparadekto to 1.23 avrio, alla einai pera apo tous skopous aftou tou vivliou...
Alla 1.5 units sto 1.85 na paei sta 2 sets to Stosur-Cirstea. 1.85, bwin. Afto vgainei 8% value, alla to fovamai pio poli apo to allo. To provlima einai oti kai edw vlepw to outsider pio dinato kai pithanotata tha to exw. Simpathestati se mena i Stosur, alla einai gia dipla i australeza. Aneta vlepw ti Roumana na tin apokleiei, sto 2.38, alla de tha to pickarw akoma. I alitheia einai oti de me exei peisei kai toso poli i Roumana, apla oute kai i Stosur. Apo tis 4 avrio, kamia de mou exei kanei entipwsi, oute i Kuznetsova pou tin paizw, apla mou exei kanei terastia arnitiki etnipwsi i paxia. Opoia perasei apo ton prwto imiteliko, gia mena tha to parei sxedon sta sigoura. I Safina sto 1.91 to skeftomai para poli na tin paiksw na to parei, apla fovamai ligo tis Roufokavlova, Tsibukova, pws ti lene, sto semi, opou i Safina dinei 1.21. Tha skeftw ti tha kanw me ekeino. Vlepw kati se styl Safina-Cirstea teliko kai na ti roumpwnei i Safina. Apla me fovizei ligo i Pipova, giati einai fanero oti pairnei poli koko prin paiksei. An ti vlepate simera me ti Sharapova, poso nevriki einai, einai sta oria tou adinatou na min pairnei ntopes i koko afti.
Vasika scratch, that. Maxarw ta 2 sets sto Cirstea-Stosur 1.85. 3 units sinolo loipon. Kai pare sti BF LAY to 1.74 gia 2 sets (diladi Ale mou afto einai san na pairneis 2.35 gia to 'oxi 2 sets', diladi gia ta 3 sets). 1 unit sto 2.35 loipon, kai 3 units sto 1.85. 4% sure bet aneta.
Me alla logia an vgei 3 sets, tha xasw 1.65 units(net). An vgei 2 sets tha kerdisw 1.55 units (net).
Paromoia fasi me to xthesino: Under 36.5 pts sto monfils-federer 2.80. 2.5 units.
Lay 3 units sto arithmos sets: 3 sets sto 2.46 tis BF (ekei to zitan, panta ta lay pou lew einai ekei pou to zitan, den afinw anoikta kai an ta paroun). Afto Ale mou einai san na epaiksa to antistrofo sto 1.68. Grapsto diladi: arithos sets 3? NO 1.68.
Ginetai pantws na xasoun kai ta 2. An paei 7-5, 7-5, 7-6. Fisika xthes tha evgainan kai ta dio, me to Gonzalez... Ki afto ginetai..
Mon.
Re malakes, tha trelathw stegna...
Defterolepta meta pou maxarw to under 36.5 2.80, i apodosi anti na pesei, paei sto 3.05!!!!!!!
Vasika tha to valw alla tosa me antistoixo lay sti BF. Alla apo apopsi units afise to afou exoume max 3 units. Apla einai trello afto pou simvainei. Pws ginetai na anevike? Me poio skeptiko? Vasika kserw kai pws ginetai na anevike kai me poio skeptiko, alla ta krataw gia otan grapsw vivlio... Merika pragmata kalitera na mi legontai se forums mpas kai ksipnisoun merikoi...
Pantws poli intrigkadorika pragmata simvainoun se afto to terastio mpourdelo pou legetai bwin...
Mon.
Prosthetw sto lay gia ta 2 sets tis Stosur-Cirstea allo ena unit, einai diladi san na exw paiksei 2 units sto 2.35 na MIN paei sta 2 sets to match. O logos pou prosthetw, einai oti tha valw 1 unit sto under 20.5 games 2.49 gia to match sti Bwin.
Pali ekanan malakia. Twra vevaia, mporei aneta na paei 2 sets kai na paei over 20.5. Ki etsi na xasw mia extra monada giati kalifthika extra kai na xasw kai afto to unit sto over. Par'ol'afta, to 2.49 einai way too much. Variemai na grafw tus ipologismous, alla pali ta gamisan sto poso aksizei o kathe pontos. Ara vale 1 unit sto un 20.5 2.49
Nice, anestisa kai ti xontri. Paizei poli kala se sxesi me olo to ipoloipo tournoua. Kamia sigkrisi. Xanei men 5-3 (twra exei 2 mpales gia na kanei to 5-4), kai i Kuznetsova an kratiseit o servis tis next pairnei to set. Alla den kserw kan an thelw na to kratisei. Paizei toso kala se sxesi me ta alla match i Serena, les kai den ipirksan ekeina ta match, pou isws einai kalitero na girisei kai to prwto set, mpas kai paei kai kerdisei 2-0. Ekei ftasame...
Xanei i xontri 1-0 sets kai 4-2. Kai gia na mi ginei to 5-2 sto servis tis Kuznetsova ginontai ola ta parakatw: Katevainei i diaititis aftovoulws se ena kai allazei apofasi enantion tis. Meta apo ligo se krisimotato ponto, o diaititis ksanaallazei apofasi me to simadi kai to replay deixnei oti kanei lathos. 2 apofaseis kai oi 2 kata. Meta apo ligo exei sdvantadge na kanei to 5-2 kai peftei re file. Nai peftei! Me keno gipedo mprosta tis. GAMW TIN PANAGIA STEGNA.
Spame 5-3, na mi spasei pisw sto servis gia to match? Gamw to theo apla....
Den iparxei logos na perimenw. Itan 4-2 kai epese gia na mi ginei to 5-2, itan 5-3, servire kai efage break. Eftase konta sto break kai to exase. Exase kapakia kai to epomeno (efage break) gia na min paei kan sto tie-break...
Den iparxei logos na perimenw ti tha ginei sto 3o set, exei idi xasei profanws.
Etsi 3.82 units apo to 2-0, 2.78 units apo to na paiktoun 2 sets, kai 2.10 apo to na nokouse i Kuznetsova. Etsi stegna klopi 8.8 units. 8.8 units diafora. Poutana panagia, paliopousta thee.
Loipon imoun YTD:71-93-1 +24.77 units.
Exasa 3.5 units apo to match tis Kuznetsova. Sto match tis Kirstea exasa 2 units apo tin kalipsi. Alla kerdisa 2.55 apo ta 2 sets. Kai kerdisa 1.49 apo to under. Sinolo 2-3 -1.46 units. Anti gia +7 units...
YTD:73-96-1 +23.31 units. Gamw ta panta.
Kala ekana egw kai to exw metrisei idi. I kuznetsova exei 2 mathc ball kai fisika ta xanei panefkola kai ta dio, kai to game sto kapaki. Apla den kerdizei oute mexri ti deftera parousia na paizoun.
alla 2 exei twra, lol apla.
To pire gamw tin poutana ti doula tin Afrikana mou gamw mesa. Tin pswlou. Gamw to Xristo tis, eprepe na paei kai na parei to deftero? Poutana. Poutanara.
Opote diorthwnw to record mou(metrisa ws xameni tin Kuznetsova pou to telika to girise). YTD:74-95-1 +25.41 units.
Prwto set, tie-break me ti mia! Opote xanw ta 3 units kai kerdizw 1.68 units apo tin kalipsi. Ara 0-1 -1.32. Ara paw 74-96-1 +24.09 units.
Twra i megali fasi tha einai na paei 3-0 to match, alla na paei over 36.5! Na ginei defteri fora sto tournoua! Ki etsi na xasw ta panta ola. Px 7-6, 7-5. I 7-6, 7-6. Lol, plaka tha exei...Mono afto menei allwste..
Loipon, to. O Federer kerdise 3-0 kai den pige vevaia over. Xanw 3 units stin kalipsi gia ta 3 sets. Kerdizw net 4.5 units apo to under. Ara sinolo kanw sto game 1-1 +1.5 units. Lew 1-1 kai oxi 1-0 giati den itan 100% amoivaia apokleiomena (mporousan thewritika na xasoun kai ta 2, i na kerdisoun kai ta 2). Xanw kai 0.1 units apo tin kalipsi se robredo. Ara YTD: 75-98-1 +15.49 units.
Skeftomai sovara na min ksanapickarw edw. Den iparxoun afta pou ginontai. EFTIXWS den eimai TOSO gkantemis kai sta actual bets mou opws eimai sta picks. Px oti dinw kai kaliptw arketa, mporei na vgei, oti den kaliptw, de vgainei apla pote, klp.
Ooops, ksexasa, piga kai 1-1 -0.45 units sto basket, middle sto imixrono, o gamwtsaldaris xanei ti voli, alliws pigaine stous 4 to imixrono kai eixa kanei side. Way to cost me 3 units!.
Ara YTD:76-99-1 +25.04 units.
Mon.
Ksexasa to 1.5 units pou exasa sto Aris -2 first quarter. Fisika to +5.5 half pou to eixa poli pio varia apo ta -2 kai -4 mazi, den to vala estw miso unit parapanw. Lol, anyway. 100risan ta losers mou, ante na ta xiliasw.
YTD:77-100-1 +23.54 units.
Ok, oxi oti tha vgei vevaia, alla giaftot o logo eixa valei 2 units kai oxi 3 sto Del Potro. Epeidi elega oti iparxei to senario na gamisei o fed to Monfils. Afto akrivws egine, 3-0 kai tis mpales mesa, kai ta xrisopsara ksexasan amesws giati eftase o fed na thewreitai 'arketa xlwmos'. Twra paizei me enan kata poli kalitero paikti sto xwma apo Monfils kai dinei 3.75 o Del Potro, enw o Monfils ekleise 3.90. I apodosi tou Del Potro anevike ki olas, anti na pesei pou perase ena giro. Pige 6.6. Omologw oti de mporw na to polikatalavw afto. An dinei 3.70-3.75 o Del Potro avrio, giati na dinei 6.6 na to parei??? Diladi an perasei to Federer, pou molis edeikse panisxiros, tha exei 1.76 ston teliko? An 3.75 einai fair odds, tote simainei oti an perasei ton exoun gia 1.76. An 3.70 einai ta fair odds, tote ton exoun gia ligo panw apo 1.78.
De mporw na vrw logiki se afto. Ti to kako ekane simera gia na thewrithei etsi metrios? Kerdise 3-0, se match pou perimename 4 sets i 3, xwris na paei tie-break kai tetoia. Diladi an paei teliko me Soderling, na pw ok, oti me tin trella pou exei o Soderling, einai na ton fovasai. Alla favori einai pleon (1.80-2.25) o Gonzalez gia na paei ekei. Mia xara paiktis, alla o kaliteros pou apekleise einai o Murray... O Soderling apekleise to fantasma tou Nadal, alla toulaxiston an paei teliko tha leme oti kerdise to Nadal kai ara i apodosi mporei na einai mikri sxetika an paiksei me del porto. Alla o Gonzalez, pou einai kai favori na perasei, pws tha einai mono 1.78 me Del Potro ston teliko re gmt? Einai pio neos, eksisou kalos kai kaliteros sto xwma, kai 6 theseis panw stin pagkosmia katataksi, O Del Potro. Kai tha exei perasei panw apo to Fed gia na paei ekei.
Me alla logia, to 6.60 mou aresei poli, alla de tha valw to 3o unit, giati exw alla panw sto Del Potro avrio. 0.5 unit sto 5.54 tis Bwin na min parei panw apo ena set o Federer. Kala egw eimai crazy, to vlepw xalara 3-0 gia ton psilo. Alla i sigkekrimeni apodosi einai ok akoma kai an den exeis apopsi gia to match. An exeis estw kai ligo apopsi, px oti eprepe na dnei 3.50 fair, ginetai poli kalo value.
Kai allo 0.5 unit sto +4.5 games 2.46. Variemai na to eksigw right now, an kai einai mono 4 i wra, nistazw. Ta match einai methavrio, opote tha eksigisw avrio.
Kai merika props gia ton prwto teliko tou NBA. Apo 2 units to kathena:
Kobe ov 4.5 assists 1.75
Ariza un 11.5 pts 1.85
Kobe ov 5.5 rebs 1.85
Gasol un 11.5 rebs 1.75
Pietrus un 11.5 pts 1.85
Howard -1.5 pts vs gasol 1.72.
Tha kerdisei ena set i Samantha -toXri-Stosur? Oxi 2.07, 2 units, bwin, paizei me Kuznetsova. 7% value. Megalo surebet, klp.
Mon.
Παρακαλούνται οι άθεοι, βέβηλοι, αλλόθρησκοι, ιερόσυλοι, κ.τ.λ. να μην καταχρώνται του site για να προσυλητίζουν ή να υβρίζουν Θεούς, Αγίους ή ιερά πρόσωπα άλλων ή και δικών τους θρησκειών!
Epeidi de tha mou vgei an den to kalipsw(!!!) lay to 2-0 sets sto 1.21 gia 0.3 units.
Mon.
Afto einai san na kaneis back 5.76 sto na min paei 2-0 i Kuznetsova diladi ale mou, 0.3 units.
Mon.
Tin Panagia twn Parisiwn elega re, de mporoume oute vivlia na vrizoume?
En tw metaksi, pleon kai na ta kaliptw, pali xanoun. Kalipsa sto 1-0 sets, 4-2. Paei meta kai xanei efkairies na ksanaspasei kai na paei 5-2. Ksekinaei na servirei gia to 5-3 kai kerdizei 30-0. Kai ekei kanei ta prwta DIO tis dipla lathi sto match. LOL! Kai paei 5-4 i alli telika. Twra servirei gia na meinei sto set. Alla as paei na gamithei, twra polla de xanw outws i allws.
Mon.
Allo 0.2 units lay sto 1.34 sto 4-2 tou tie.
Eixe kai pio xamila gmt, 1.32, tespa.
to lay 1.34 einai bet 3.94 ale mou. Twra eimai fully kalimmenos, ara tha vgei epitelous!
Lol, kai omws exase to set. Apo 5-2 sto tie break panw!!!!
+0.6 units apo to 3.94 (lay 1.34). +1.43 units apo to 5.76 (lay 1.21).
-2 units apo to arxiko bet. Ara 1-0 +0.03 units. Lol, den paizei na piasw kati edw pote, akoma kai an epiasa perissotera fragka apo oti an evgaine to arxiko! Apla, ekei se units epairna 1.64 net, an evgaine. To gkantemosite tou Tsiampoussi, ti perimeneis?
Sry, +0.59 units apo to 3.94, aa sinolo +0.02 units.
Pantws toulaxiston tha parei to Garros o foukaras o Federer. Giati kai avrio na perasei, tha ton ksanapaiksw kontra ton karioli, gia na to parei sigoura. Amartia einai na min to parei pote...
loipn imoun YTD:77-100-1 +23.54 units
ekana 1-0 +0.02 sto tennis (vevaia, giati na kanw +1.64 opws an kerdize 2-0 i alli i poutana me 5-2 panw sto tiebreak?).
Ekana 4-2 sto NBA. O pietrus evale olous tous pontous tou se axrista simeia. Alla ekei pou einai na trelainesai einai oti enw exei 4 foul kai xanoun 25 pontous, paei kai ton vazei 3 lepta apo to telos, vazei ena triponto kai parto katw to bet. Episis o Gasol sto telos perase to Howard. Ekana 4-2 sta props tou NBA loipon. kai +2.20 units. Opote sinolo 5-2 +2.22 units.
YTD:82-102-1 +25.76 units.
Mon.
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